School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collections

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    Are large-scale farmers better than small-scale farmers? evidence from maize farmers using Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS), 2010-2018
    (Makerere University, 2026) Mugabi, Ephraims Kook
    This study investigates the comparative effectiveness of small-scale and large-scale maize farmers in addressing maize production in Uganda, utilizing data from five waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) spanning 2010 to 2018. The primary aim was to assess the factors influencing maize production among small-scale and large-scale farmers, with specific objectives examining the effects of farm inputs, demographic, biophysical and regional factors on maize harvest quantities. Employing fixed effects regression models, the analysis was conducted separately for small-scale farmers (n=5,485), large-scale farmers (n=206), and a pooled sample (n=5,691). Results reveal significant disparities in production patterns and input effectiveness between the two groups. Small-scale farmers dominate Uganda’s maize production sector (over 96% of producers) but achieve lower average annual harvests (268.1 kg) compared to large-scale farmers (520.3 kg). However, when small-scale farmers access fertilizers and pesticides, their production increases substantially by 52.8 kg and 71.5 kg respectively. Among small-scale farmers, regional location significantly influences production, with Northern and Western regions outperforming Central Uganda by 55.1 kg and 63.7 kg annually. Customary land tenure reduces production by approximately 25 kg compared to freehold tenure. Counterintuitively, farmers using traditional seeds produce significantly more maize than those using improved seeds across both categories, small-scale farmers using traditional seeds harvest 67.9 kg more, while large-scale farmers harvest 322.2 kg more annually. For large-scale farmers, sandy loam soils increase production by 373.4 kg compared to sandy clay loam soils. The study concludes that small-scale farmers are not inherently less productive but are constrained by limited access to inputs, insecure land tenure, and inadequate institutional support. Recommendations include revising agricultural support programs to include small-scales, strengthening land tenure security, improving fertilizer subsidy distribution, expanding integrated pest management training, and developing regionally targeted interventions. These findings contribute to evidence-based agricultural policymaking aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) and highlight the need for context-specific strategies that recognize the complementary roles of both small-scale and large-scale farmers in achieving maize production in Uganda.
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    Factors associated with self-reported tuberculosis medication adherence in Jinja Regional Referral Hospital
    (Makerere University, 2026) Mwesigwa, Peter
    Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge, with non-adherence to TB medication contributing to treatment failure, continued disease transmission, drug resistance, and mortality. This study examined factors associated with self-reported TB medication adherence among patients attending Jinja Regional Referral Hospital. A quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted among 118 eligible TB patients drawn from 172 patients registered for treatment at Jinja Regional Referral Hospital. Data were collected using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the study variables, while binary logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of self-reported TB medication adherence. Adjusted Odds Ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated, with statistical significance assessed at the 5% level. Overall, 70 (59.3%) respondents were adherent to TB medication, while 48 (40.7%) were non-adherent. The binary logistic regression model was statistically significant overall (LR χ²(18) = 99.52, p < 0.001), with a Pseudo R² of 0.6806. After adjustment for other factors, challenges in accessing the health facility remained the only statistically significant independent predictor of self-reported adherence (AOR = 30.24; 95% CI: 2.83-322.84; p = 0.005). Respondents who did not experience challenges in accessing the health facility had approximately 30 times higher odds of being adherent to TB medication compared to those who experienced challenges. The study concludes that challenges in accessing health facilities are an important barrier to self-reported TB medication adherence among patients attending Jinja Regional Referral Hospital. The study recommends strengthening decentralized TB treatment services at lower-level health facilities to improve access to treatment. Further studies involving larger and more diverse populations are recommended to obtain more precise estimates and improve comparability across settings.
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    Determinants of the intensity of inorganic fertilizer and improved seed use among smallholder maize producers in uganda
    (Makerere University, 2026) Kugonza, Sarah. Soro
    Agricultural technology adoption remains central to improving productivity and food security among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Uganda, maize is a staple crop, but yields remain below potential due to limited and uneven adoption of yield enhancing inputs such as inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds. This study, therefore, investigated the determinants of the intensity of inorganic fertilizer and improved seed use among smallholder maize producers in Uganda. Data were analyzed from 4,161 farmers captured in the Uganda National Panel Surveys (UNPS) of 2015/16, 2018/19, and 2019/20. Descriptive statistics characterized the farmers, and Pearson correlation coefficient identified potential factors influencing the intensity of inorganic fertilizer and improved seed use. Finally, a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SURE) model was fitted to examine the determinants of the intensity of use at a 5% level of significance. The results show that intensity use was higher or improved maize seed than for inorganic fertilizer, with farmers applying an average of 6.07 kg/acre [95% CI: 5.78–6.36] of improved seed compared to 4.51 kg/acre [95% CI: 4.09–4.82] of inorganic fertilizer. The results from SURE model revealed that for inorganic fertilizer application rate, higher intensity of use was positively associated with the application rates of organic fertilizer used (kgs/acre) (Coefficient = 0.922, p = 0.000), application rates of Pesticides used (liters/acre) (Coefficient = 1.111, p = 0.001), and being male (Coefficient = 0.587, p = 0.043), while larger crop area (acres) (Coefficient = -0.204, p = 0.036) and residence in the Eastern (Coefficient = -1.349, p = 0.001) or Northern (Coefficient = –1.818, p = 0.000) regions were negatively associated. In contrast, the intensity of improved maize seed use was positively influenced by application rates of organic fertilizer used (kgs/acre) (Coefficient = 0.013, p = 0.003), crop area (acres) (Coefficient = 0.144, p = 0.000), extension visits (Coefficient = 0.016, p = 0.044), and being male (Coefficient = 0.053, p = 0.040). These findings highlight the importance of strengthening extension services, promoting integrated soil fertility management, and addressing gender and regional disparities to enhance the intensity of input use. Targeted policies that improve women’s access to resources and support farmers in less-adopting regions could accelerate sustainable maize productivity growth in Uganda.
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    Makerere University assessing factors affecting contraceptive self-injection (SI) uptake among women in Uganda.
    (Makerere University, 2026) Ndagire, Berna
    Depot medroxyprogesterone acetate subcutaneous (DMPA-SC) self-injection is a self-care family planning intervention that improves women's autonomy and access to contraception. However, evidence on factors influencing its uptake in Uganda remains limited. This study assessed the predictors of DMPA-SC self-injection uptake among women of reproductive age in Uganda. A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted using secondary data from 243 women who received DMPA-SC self-injection training through a Population Services International Uganda (PSIU) programme between May and June 2023. Descriptive statistics summarized participant characteristics, while Fisher's Exact Test assessed bivariate associations between selected predictors and DMPA-SC self-injection uptake. Variables significant at the bivariate level were included in an adjusted Firth penalized logistic regression model to identify independent predictors of uptake. A bootstrap sensitivity analysis with 5,000 resamples was performed to assess the robustness of the model estimates. Overall, 97.1% of the women adopted DMPA-SC self-injection. At the bivariate level, knowledge, confidence, awareness of side effects, and training/support were significantly associated with uptake. In the adjusted Firth regression model, awareness of side effects was the only independent predictor of uptake (adjusted OR = 104.30, p = 0.002). Bootstrap analysis demonstrated that this association remained stable across repeated resampling, supporting the robustness of the findings. The study concludes that awareness of side effects plays a critical role in promoting DMPASC self-injection uptake among trained women. Strengthening counselling on potential side effects and their management should therefore be prioritized within family planning programmes to promote informed decision-making and improve uptake. Future studies should use larger and more representative samples to validate these findings and assess determinants of continued self-injection use.
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    Risky sexual behaviours, coping responses and parent-adolescent communication in South-Central Uganda
    ( 2026) Ayebale, Lillian
    Adolescents in Uganda face multiple vulnerabilities and exposures to risks. Approximately 25% of Ugandan teenagers become pregnant by the age of 19 years. This study explored and examined risky sexual behaviours, coping responses and parent communication among adolescents in South-Central Uganda. This was a mixed-methods study design. Quantitative study utilised secondary data from round 19 of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. The qualitative study involved focus group discussions, in-depth interviews with adolescents and key informant interviews with parents/caregivers. Chi-square, logistic regression and negative binomial regression models were fitted to determine the risky sexual behaviours among adolescents. Qualitative data analysis adopted an interpretivist thematic content analysis approach to understand adolescent coping responses and adolescent communication. Adolescents aged 18-19 exhibited a significantly higher incidence of risky sexual behaviours compared to those aged 15-17 (aIRR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.77-2.28). 17 years (aIRR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.77-2.28). On the other hand, school attendance and being a student were protective factors (aIRR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.32-0.44), reducing the likelihood of risky sexual engagement. Also, the likelihood of RSB reduces with higher education. Living in a single-mother family structure (aIRR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.15-1.60), with other relatives (aIRR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.12-1.60), with non-relatives (aIRR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.21-1.94), or alone (adolescent-headed) (aIRR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.34-2.10) were all associated with higher incidence rates compared to living with both biological parents. Parents acknowledged that talking with adolescents could help reduce risky sexual behaviour. Parental talks on sexual matters were usually unplanned and happened when triggered by specific incidents. Evidence from the results suggests that adolescents engage in risky sexual behaviours, including non-marital sexual partnerships, multiple sexual partners, unprotected sex with a non-marital partner, and transactional sex. Parent-adolescent communication on sexual matters is essential/pertinent approach is needed to reduce/avert the associated risks. There is a need for continuous engagement of all different stakeholders involved in adolescent work to have targeted interventions to prevent risky sexual behaviours among young people.