School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collections

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    Detecting tax evaders in Uganda : a comparison of logistic regression and finite mixture of logistic regression
    (Makerere University, 2023) Tusubira, Brian Apollo
    This paper presents data mining techniques to predict VAT evaders for inclusion in the audit plan. A dataset of 1,311 registered VAT taxpayers in Large Taxpayers’ Office and Medium Taxpayers’ Office for the period FY2017/18 across 11 features was used. An exploratory data analysis was used to establish the hidden patterns in the dataset and backward elimination method was used to identify the significant features for model development. Logistic regression (LR) and finite mixture logistic regression with and without concomitant variable were used to detect VAT evaders. BIC was used to select between the FMLR model with and without concomitant variable. Results of each technique were compared and the best technique was chosen based on accuracy, precision and recall were used to evaluate model performance. Findings of the study showed that number of no sales return, tax office, business sector and number of late payments were identified as significant features in VAT evasion detection. FMLR without concomitant variable had a lower BIC compared to FMLR with concomitant variable and was therefore considered. Model performance evaluation between FMLR without concomitant variable and LR was carried out and FMLR outperformed LR in accuracy, recall and precision. Though LR has been extensively used as a solution to tax evasion problems, the findings of the study suggest that FMLR provide better results compared to LR. The findings of the study can be utilized by URA with emphasis on the four (4) significant variables to detect VAT evaders for inclusion in the Audit plan. URA and future studies may employ other: evader attributes, data mining techniques and model performance evaluation metrics on similar dataset and compare the results.
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    Determinants of household income diversification in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2026) Akampa, Onesmus
    Income diversification is widely recognized as a crucial strategy for enhancing livelihoods, building resilience, reducing poverty, and promoting inclusive economic growth. This study examined the factors influencing income diversification in Uganda, defining it as earning from two or more sources and analyzed a sample of 2,795 observations from the UNHS of 2019/2020 with logistic regression model based on weighted data to ensure representativeness. The sample indicated that 66.5% of households relied on more than one income sources. The findings demonstrated that age group (ages 18–30) have lower odds of diversifying their income compared to other age groups (AOR = 0.10, P=0.006) Conversely, households headed by widows or widowers exhibited higher odds of diversification than those headed by married monogamous individuals (AOR = 6.90, P=0.049) Completing primary education was linked to higher odds of diversification compared to having no formal education (AOR = 4.50, P=0.006), and Wealthy households were associated with higher odds than counterparts (AOR = 4.50, P=0.01). Households in the Western region experienced lower odds of diversification compared to those in the Central region (AOR = 0.30, P=0.011) No access to credit had lower odds than counterparts (AOR = 0.10, P=0.007). Lastly, households that engaged in joint or consultative financial decision-making had higher odds of diversification than those where decisions were made individually (AOR = 3.50, P=0.022). In conclusion, income diversification in Uganda is primarily shaped by factors (such as wealth and marital status), human capital (including age and education levels), geographic location, and financial access (encompassing access to credit/loans and inclusive decision-making). Other factors such as asset ownership or fundamental demographics like gender or household size don’t necessarily determine income diversification. Recommendations include strengthening financial inclusion, investing in basic education, supporting vulnerable groups like widows, and promoting inclusive household decision-making through financial literacy programs.
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    Child care arrangements and wellbeing of children of employed women in Central Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2022) Nankinga, Olivia
    Childcare has an influence on child morbidity and survival. It has an effect on children’s development potential, especially during the first five years of life and the effects extend into adulthood. This study aimed at examining the relationship between child care arrangements for women in work and the wellbeing of children. Data were collected from 804 households in Wakiso District of Central Uganda from mothers, children and caregivers. The analysis looks at the relationship between child wellbeing and risk factors at the level of the household, the child, the mother, the care giver and the child care arrangement. Analysis was conducted at the univariate, bivariate and multivariate levels. Results indicate that 17% were stunted, 3% were wasted and 7% were underweight. Results show higher odds of multiple CCAs for children of women in the high wealth quintile, age 35 or more years and with post-secondary education. Analysis of the determinants of the choice of caregivers revealed that women in wealthier households, those with secondary or more education, currently married, with more than one child under 5 years, and with a father who was involved in child care had higher odds of employing caregivers that were relatives. The odds of child wellbeing were higher among children belonging to middle and high wealth categories, those with female caregivers and with mothers of the Pentecostal and Adventist faiths. Qualitative results indicate better wellbeing among children looked after in formal child care facilities. While further research is needed to determine the effects of the various child care arrangements on child health and development, interventions such as setting up of workplace child care facilities by employers, subsidised by government and promotion of nutritional and child protection programs can go a long way in not only improving the wellbeing of children whose mothers are at work but also making motherhood more compatible with work. There is need for Government of Uganda through the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development to improve child care through fast tracking policy commitment to providing early childhood care and education, training of the providers and increasing investment in child care and early childhood programs. The study highlights the need to improve the socioeconomic status of households in Uganda for better child wellbeing outcomes.
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    An analysis of factors determining voter turnout : a case study of Kampala Central Division
    (Makerere University, 2009) Namata, Ssimbwa Gladys
    The determinants of voter turnout in Uganda have not been researched on like it has been done in other countries like South Africa, USA and others; yet voting is a crucial exercise in every country. For instance, since South Africa's society is segmented on ethnic lines, ethnicity therefore plays a crucial role in affecting voting patterns and political choices, followed by socio-economic status and age of the voter. In USA, American citizens with more education and income, employed individuals, home owners, those who have stayed longer at current residence, professionals, women, older individuals, married individuals and blacks were more likely to register and vote. In Uganda, there was need to research on the determinants of voter turnout and the magnitude of their contributions. The major aim of the study was to analyse factors determining voter turnout. The data used in the research was mainly primary data, collected by use of questionnaires in Kampala Central Division. However, some secondary data was obtained; like the list of registered voters which was used as the sampling frame. This was provided by the Electoral Commission of Uganda, a body in charge of elections. Systematic sampling procedure was applied at all stages in sample selection. The data was analyzed using logistic regression model which showed the length of time at current residence as the most significant predictor, followed by education, then age, eligibility of household members to vote and lastly not knowing whom to vote. The findings were that; for each additional year a person resides in a particular area, the odds in favour of voting increases by 4.6%, the less educated vote more than the higher educated, the odds in favor of a person to vote increases by 6.2% each additional year of age, the odds of not voting for persons from households where some members are below the voting age are one and a half times more than for those where all members are eligible voters and many voters not know who to vote. The other variables, which are; sex, marital status, region of origin, economic status, lack of interest, elections rigging and other forms of malpractices and being very busy or process is time wasting were not significant. It was therefore concluded that age, length of time at current residence, education, eligibility of household members to vote and not knowing whom to vote affect voting. There is need therefore, for the Electoral Commission to carry out more elaborate sensitization programmes about voting targeting all registered and unregistered voters.
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    Means of support for elderly persons and their living preferences : a case study of Kampala District
    (Makerere University, 2004) Mugisha, Andrew Muhumuza
    This study was aimed at establishing the main factors that determined elderly persons' living arrangements in Kampala. This undertaking was made in response to recent socio demographic trends that have been threatening the traditional care systems of the elderly, and which are bound to have serious implications for the future elderly population's• housing needs. Data were collected from 306 elderly respondents selected using a simple random sampling design. A significantly higher proportion of males were found to own property than females. A significantly higher proportion of elderly males than females were found to have earned pension income, salary income, rent income and accumulated wealth. Also, a significantly higher proportion of married respondents earned pension income and salaried income, than widowed respondents. And, significantly higher proportions of better educated respondents were found to have earned pension income, salary income and accumulated wealth, than the lesser educated respondents. There were also intergenerational transfers of assistance and they occurred from the intermediate (or working age) generation to the elderly generation, and back to the dependent (or younger generation). Adult children (and relatives) provided financial assistance to their elderly parents. The male, married and better educated respondents received more financial assistance. These subgroups also had significantly larger mean numbers of dependents to support, and consequently spent more on their dependents, than their respective counterparts did. The elderly respondents' most preferred living arrangement was living alone with a spouse, followed by living with an unmarried daughter, and then by living alone, living with an unmarried son, living with a married son and living with a married daughter. Recommendations included requesting effective provision of reliable social security structures like pension schemes from government. Government intervention programmes were also suggested and these ranged from: providing progressively mote financial support to elderly persons with larger numbers of orphans; to assuming complete responsibility for these orphans. Possible areas of future research were mentioned as: the establishment of a comprehensive earlier-life model for living preferences; inquiring into the knowledge and practice that people have of saving for old age; determining the extent of support provided by elderly persons to orphans; finding out what type of support the elderly population would expect to receive from the government; studying the effects that health status has on living preferences; studying the factors that affect the elderly population's demand for community homes in East Africa; carrying' out sociological studies to discover what elderly persons' living preferences are with special attention been paid to areas such as the influence of family ties; determining the main constraints older persons face during their strife to derive financial security; gaining deeper understanding about the reasons for kin refraining from providing support to their elderly relatives; and measuring the extent to which internal migration by older persons affects their living preferences.