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ItemAn analysis of the effect of public debt on economic growth in Uganda(Makerere University, 2022)The main objective of this study was analysing the effect of public debt on economic growth of Uganda (1992-2021). This study used secondary time series data, which was obtained from Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank development indicators. Furthermore, the study used Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test to check whether the variables are non-stationary by taking the null hypothesis as ‘there is the unit root’ against the alternative hypothesis ‘there is no unit root’. Due to the low power and other problems associated with these test methods, the OLS-based autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration has become popular in recent years. This research used a multiple linear regression model to examine the effect of public debt on economic growth of Uganda. The regression results revealed that while Years spent at school had a beneficial impact on growth by increasing productivity, public debt, inflation, and interest rates considerably slowed economic growth. Population growth, trade openness, and investment were not important variables. Overall, the results highlight the importance of careful debt management, macroeconomic stability, and human capital investment in maintaining Uganda's long-term economic growth. The study recommends that to avoid excessive borrowing impeding economic growth, Uganda should maintain appropriate governmental debt levels. Fiscal strain can be lessened by putting in place stringent debt restrictions and giving priority to profitable initiatives. Furthermore, since rising prices have a detrimental effect on GDP growth, macroeconomic policies should work to maintain moderate and stable inflation. Careful monetary policy and supply-side factor monitoring can help achieve this. Last but not least, the central bank should make sure that interest rates continue to be favorable for investment and company growth. Because high borrowing costs discourage economic activity, it is crucial to strike a balance between promoting growth and containing inflation.
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ItemDeterminants of time overruns in road infrastructure projects in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)This study investigated the determinants of time overruns in road infrastructure projects in Uganda. The analysis was done using frequency distribution, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Pearson Chisquare and binary logistic regression. The study shows that the introduction of the Integrated Bank of Projects (IBP) significantly improved Uganda’s road infrastructure project management, reducing time overruns from 77.61% to 33.33% as a result of improving efficiency in project preparation due to the reduced turn-around time for preparing projects. Post-IBP, projects also experienced lower costs and shorter durations, with greater domestic funding and local contractor participation, confirming improvements in timeliness, cost-efficiency, and accountability. The multivariate logistic regression results indicate that procurement delays, feasibility studies, and land acquisition status were the key determinants of time overruns in Uganda’s road infrastructural projects. Projects that experienced procurement delays after the introduction of the IBP were about nine times more likely to encounter time overruns, demonstrating that procurement inefficiencies remained a major source of delay despite institutional reforms. In contrast, projects that conducted feasibility studies were significantly less likely to experience time overruns across all project periods, confirming the crucial role of proper planning and technical assessment in ensuring timely completion. Likewise, projects with partially acquired land showed a substantially lower likelihood of delays, with odds ratios of 0.073, 0.081, and 0.065 (p < 0.05), suggesting that timely and adequate land acquisition is essential for minimizing project delays. To enhance the timely delivery of road infrastructure projects in Uganda, the study recommends making undertaking comprehensive feasibility studies mandatory for all infrastructure projects, ensuring they address technical, financial, environmental, economic, and social aspects, while investing in continuous capacity building for technical officers responsible for preparing and managing projects and consultants. It also advises streamlining procurement processes through digitization, stronger contract management, performance-based contractor evaluations, and strict timelines to reduce delays. Additionally, early community engagement, fair and timely compensation, coordinated land acquisition processes, and a centralized land information system are recommended to address persistent land-related challenges and minimize project delays.
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ItemImpact of value added tax policy reforms on revenue, poverty and inequality in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)This study analyses the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) policy reforms on government revenue, poverty, income inequality, and household consumption in Uganda. VAT is a central component of domestic revenue mobilisation, yet persistent concerns remain regarding its distributional and welfare implications. Using the Uganda tax–benefit microsimulation model (UGAMOD) and data from the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) 2016/17 and Uganda Revenue Authority, the study examines the incidence of VAT across consumption deciles and simulates alternative VAT policy scenarios while holding the existing tax base, exemptions, and zero-rated items constant. Specifically, the analysis assesses the distribution of VAT burdens across households, evaluates the welfare effects of the current VAT system, and estimates the revenue, poverty, inequality, and consumption impacts of increasing the standard VAT rate from the baseline of 18 percent to 19 percent and 20 percent. The results indicate that VAT in Uganda exhibits mild but non-linear progressivity. Middle-income households bear the highest VAT burden relative to their consumption, while poorer households are partially protected through exemptions and zero-rated essential goods. The findings show that increases in the VAT rate generate substantial additional government revenue; however, these gains are accompanied by modest increases in consumption-based poverty, particularly among households living near the poverty line, male-headed households, and households with children, due to higher consumer prices. Inequality declines slightly following VAT rate increases, reflecting the larger absolute VAT contributions of higher income households, though the magnitude of this effect is small. vi The study concludes that while VAT remains an efficient instrument for domestic revenue mobilisation in Uganda, VAT reforms involve clear trade-offs between revenue generation, poverty outcomes, and household welfare. It emphasises the importance of using microsimulation tools such as UGAMOD to inform evidence-based tax policy and recommends that any VAT rate increases be accompanied by well-targeted compensatory measures, including social protection interventions, to mitigate adverse welfare effects on poor and vulnerable households.
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ItemExternal debt burden and economic growth in Uganda (1985-2020)(Makerere University, 2021)The main objective of the study was to assess the impact external debt burden on economic growth in Uganda. Different from previous studies, in addition to being country specific, the study also uses a longer time series period. The study is an extension of the Barro (1990) in which he has interpreted external debt as an extended tool of the fiscal policy which has long term effect on economic growth. It adopts the Error Correlation Model (ECM) for analysis. The results obtained from the analysis reveal that external debt has a significant negative effect on economic growth of Uganda Inflation and Official Development Assistance were also found to have a significant negative effect on economic growth. These results were tested for robustness and none of the tests revealed any inconsistency or any of the common econometric problems associated with time series data. Based on the results obtained the study recommended that government should expeditiously seek to implement structural reforms geared towards fiscal consolidation, debt management, public sector reform and tax reform which are necessary for economic expansion as well as for fiscal and debt sustainability. The study further recommends that government should opt for domestic alternatives like improving the quality and quantity of labor force in the country which will boost production and income there by expanding the tax base which will reduce reliance on external assistance especially external debt.
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Item[Dataset from a study on] shifting from degenerative to regenerative farming: evidence from fecal sludge fertilizer use in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)To combat land degradation and climate change, agriculture must transition from linear "extraction and disposal" systems to a circular economy. Fecal sludge-derived fertilizer (FSDF) offers a restorative solution due to its richness in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. However, negative social perceptions and low marketability limit its agricultural adoption. This study evaluates the economic and market viability of FSDF in Uganda by analyzing farmer preferences for five fertilizer attributes, focusing on "residual effect" as an indicator of readiness to adopt circular economy practices. Utilizing a discrete choice experiment and mixed logit models to account for scale and preference heterogeneity, the study identified the most preferred attributes and key drivers of farmer behavior. The results reveal that farmers strongly prefer a long residual effect, and product certification. Significant preference heterogeneity exists, driven primarily by access to credit and membership in agricultural or non-agricultural groups. Notably, farmers are willing to pay the highest premium for a longer residual effect (USD 1.06), followed by certification (USD 0.29/kg). The estimated maximum total willingness to pay is USD 1.82, which aligns with current market prices, confirming that FSDF is commercially competitive. The study concludes that farmers are willing to transition from inorganic to organic fertilizers due to the high value placed on the residual effect. Large-scale FSDF production is commercially viable if manufacturers prioritize certification while maintaining organic integrity. Furthermore, adoption can be accelerated through targeted awareness campaigns to mitigate social stigma and by leveraging group memberships to facilitate knowledge sharing.