School of Economics (SE) Collections
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Recent Submissions
1 - 5 of 572
-
ItemGross domestic savings and economic growth in Uganda(Makerere Univeristy, 2025)This study examined the effect of gross domestic savings on economic growth in Uganda using annual time series data from 1989 to 2023. Guided by the Solow growth theory, the study employed econometric techniques including the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test for stationary, Johansen co-integration test for long-run relationships, and Ordinary Least Squares regression for estimation. Empirical findings revealed that gross domestic savings and foreign direct investment positively and significantly affect economic growth, while inflation and population growth have negative and significant effects. Trade openness was positive but statistically insignificant. The model explained approximately 63.8% of the variation in economic growth, and diagnostic tests confirmed its reliability. The study concludes that economic growth in Uganda depends largely on increased savings mobilization, attraction of sustainable foreign investment, price stability, and effective population management. It recommends that the government prioritize policies aimed at encouraging domestic savings, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and aligning population growth with resource capacity to achieve longterm, sustainable economic development.
-
ItemEffect of renewable energy consumption on employment in Uganda (1990–2024).(Makerere University, 2025)This study examines the effect of renewable energy consumption on employment in Uganda over the period 1990–2024, with the aim of understanding the short-run and long-run effects of renewable energy consumption on total employment in Uganda, the influence of GDP per capita, trade openness, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment and the speed of adjustment of employment toward equilibrium following short-run shocks. Using time-series secondary data from the World Bank, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the study employs econometric techniques including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger causality tests to analyze both short-run and long-run relationships between renewable energy consumption and employment. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant long-run relationship between renewable energy consumption and total employment, suggesting that increased investment and utilization of renewable energy sources such as solar, biomass, and hydro have contributed to expanding employment opportunities, particularly in rural and emerging green sectors. However, the short-run effects are found to be modest, reflecting the time lag between energy sector reforms and labor market adjustments. The study concludes that scaling up renewable energy investments, enhancing technical skills training, and strengthening policy frameworks can accelerate employment growth and support Uganda’s transition toward a green economy. The findings have important implications for energy policy, sustainable development, and the achievement of Uganda’s Vision 2040 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Keywords: Renewable energy, Employment, Econometric analysis, Sustainable development
-
ItemEast African customs union and economic growth in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)This study empirically investigates the effect of the East African Community (EAC) Customs Union on Uganda’s economic growth, guided by the Gravity Model of Trade and the Solow Growth Model. Using annual time-series data from 1994 to 2024, the analysis employed a twostage approach. First, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to examine the longrun and short-run effect of the Customs Union on Uganda’s trade performance. Second, a separate VECM estimated the relationship between intra-EAC trade and Uganda’s economic growth. Key variables included logged trade volume, real GDP figures for Uganda and its partners, and a dummy variable for the post-2005 Customs Union period. The models were validated through Johansen cointegration tests, which confirmed stable long-run relationships, and robust diagnostic checks for serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, and normality. The findings reveal a critical paradox: while intra-EAC trade has a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on Uganda’s economic growth, the EAC Customs Union policy itself shows no significant independent impact on driving that trade. This indicates that Uganda’s trade growth is more attributable to the general economic expansion of the region than to the tariff liberalization of the Customs Union, with structural constraints like a narrow export base and persistent non-tariff barriers muting the policy's effect. Consequently, the study concludes that the benefits of regional integration are not automatic. It recommends that Ugandan policymakers move beyond tariff liberalization to urgently implement targeted measures including the elimination of non-tariff barriers, investment in trade infrastructure, and support for export diversification to fully harness the growth potential of intra-EAC trade.
-
ItemForeign aid dependency and sustainability of art service delivery in Uganda’s PNFP sector: a panel analysis (2020–2024)(Makerere University, 2026)This study examined the relationship between foreign aid dependence and antiretroviral therapy (ART) service delivery outcomes in Uganda’s Private Not-for-Profit (PNFP) health sector over the period 2020–2024. The study was motivated by growing concerns regarding the sustainability of HIV/AIDS programs in the context of fluctuating donor funding. The specific objectives were to assess the effect of foreign aid dependence on ART service quality, examine its influence on service continuity, and evaluate the implications of sustained donor reliance for long-term sustainability. A quantitative panel data approach was adopted, utilizing a structured dataset comprising 600 observations. Fixed-effects regression models were used to analyze ART service quality outcomes, while a logit model was employed to examine service continuity indicators. Key variables included foreign aid dependence, viral suppression, patient retention, attrition rates, stock-out days, and service disruption. The findings indicate that foreign aid dependence is positively associated with improvements in ART service delivery. Higher levels of donor funding were associated with increased viral suppression and retention, alongside reductions in attrition, stock-outs, and service disruptions. However, the results also reveal persistently high dependence on external financing, exceeding 80% on average, which poses significant risks to long-term sustainability. The study concludes that while foreign aid remains critical in supporting ART service delivery within the PNFP sector, a gradual transition toward stronger domestic financing mechanisms is necessary to ensure resilience. These findings highlight the importance of balancing donor support with increased domestic resource mobilization to sustain HIV/AIDS service delivery in Uganda.
-
ItemPrivate investment and economic growth in Uganda: an empirical investigation: 1985 -2015.(Makerere University, 2018)Private investment in Uganda has been identified to be moving on a downward trend since the 1980’s and the main goal of the study was to utilize time series data to analyze the extent to which private investment contributed to growth in the period between 1985 and the year 2015. Other objectives of the study were to empirically investigate the factors that affected private investment during the period under review and whether there was any relationship between growth and private investment and the impact this had on the growth of the economy. The data used in the study was obtained from various sources like the World Bank and Statistical Abstracts and the International Financial Statistics (IFS). Various tests were conducted to arrive at reliable results. These included unit root and cointegration, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity tests. The results show that private investment in Uganda was affected by various factors with public investment and changes in domestic credit having a very strong relationship with private investment. The results also show that although changes in the Gross Domestic Product had a positive significant effect on the level of private investment, there was no causality between the two variables. Most of the other variables considered in the analysis conformed to economic theory on the relationship between them and private investment. This been the case, what is required is for the concerned authorities to look for ways of improving the current scenario in order to promote private investment and hence economic growth. This partly can be achieved through maintaining a stable investment environment and a favourable political climate.