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ItemDeterminants of credit access in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)This study examines the determinants of household credit access in Uganda using nationally representative data from the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) 2019/2020. A weighted sample of 13,645 households was analyzed using survey-adjusted binary logistic regression to estimate overall credit access and a multinomial logit model to distinguish between formal, informal, and no credit outcomes. Only 22.8% of households accessed credit, with 4.8% borrowing formally and 13.7% informally. Key determinants were education, income, household size, and VSLA/SACCO membership. Post-secondary education increased the probability of access by about 8 percentage points, while VSLA/SACCO membership had the strongest effect, raising access by 17.5 percentage points. Higher household income also increased access (marginal effect: 0.014). In contrast, older age (–0.088) and urban residence (–0.037) reduced the likelihood of borrowing. Regional disparities were significant, with households in Eastern Uganda more likely and those in Northern Uganda less likely to access credit. Robustness checks including alternative model specifications and diagnostic tests confirmed the reliability of the results. Key limitations include the cross-sectional design and limited capture of digital credit. The study recommends strengthening rural financial infrastructure, expanding digital and group-based lending, and promoting financial literacy to improve inclusive access to credit.
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ItemInnovation behaviour and firm performance in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)Manufacturing firms in many developing countries operate in settings associated with unregulated informal practices, skills and infrastructure constraints, low enforcement of intellectual property rights, and narrow financial markets. In such settings, investment in firm innovation is likely to be constrained. Consequently, firms may invest less in Research and Development (R&D) due to the likelihood of spillovers from introducing an innovation. As a survival strategy, innovating firms may opt to engage in incremental rather than groundbreaking innovation, acquire ready-made innovation, participate in joint endeavors, or imitate existing innovation. The choice of innovation behaviour may limit domestic value addition and is likely to influence the firm’s productivity, long-term competitiveness, international market participation, and performance outcomes. This study examines how Ugandan manufacturing firms address these innovation challenges and whether their innovation behavior explains performance outcomes. Specifically, it (1) examines the effects of competition from the informal sector (CIS) and access to finance on firm innovation behaviour, (2) identifies the determinants of the product innovation strategies manufacturing firms in Uganda adopt, and (3) analyses the effects exerted by the product innovation strategies on firm performance. To guide this analysis, the study draws on five interrelated theoretical frameworks: dual economy, pecking order, institutional theory, and both the resource-based and knowledge-based views. The first objective utilizes World Bank Enterprise Survey data and a multivariate probit model, revealing that exposure to CIS accelerates product innovation and that financing sources shape firm innovation choices. The second objective categorizes product innovation strategy into four groups: product innovation is internally developed “make”, sourced externally “buy”, created through collaboration “ally”, or developed by modifying original innovations “imitate”. It utilizes the Uganda National Innovation Survey (NIS) dataset, and findings show that product innovation strategies are heterogeneous, characterized by the firm's innovation expenditures, innovation obstacles, information sources, as well as short and long-term objectives. Firms that invest in contracted or external R&D and machinery acquisition are more likely to innovate. The analysis of the third objective is based on PLS-SEM. It employs the NIS dataset and reveals that product innovation strategy has no direct effect on firm performance. The results suggest that the firm’s product innovation strategy is mediated by other internal capabilities, including product novelty and internationalization. The study points to the need for improvements in regulatory enforcement, encouraging the formalization of informal businesses while maintaining competition and encouraging product differentiation among formal firms. There is also a need to expand and restructure the sources of financing for firm innovation. Developing affordable, innovation-focused programs and providing low-cost financing options could form part of the solution. Policymakers ought to view external sourcing and product imitation as legitimate early-stage innovation strategies. In the long-run, incremental adaptation of externally sourced technologies and learning through imitation will gradually transform into in-house capabilities for novel product innovation. However, the effectiveness of this initiative relies on having a robust and targeted skills development program for enhancing product design capabilities. Additionally, introducing targeted incentives for exporters to continuously undertake in-house R&D and differentiate their offerings will enhance the firm's international competitiveness. Finally, prioritizing the development of new, differentiated products and providing innovation grants and tax incentives can lead to sustainable business success. Subject key words; Firm performance, Innovation behaviour.
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ItemApplying the epidemiological triad to obesity in Uganda: is it relevant?(Makerere University, 2025)Uganda is grappling with a rising double burden of malnutrition, where obesity coexists with undernutrition, particularly in urban areas. This dissertation examines the relevance of the epidemiological triad model—originally for infectious diseases—to obesity, conceptualizing calorie-dense foods as the "agent," individual characteristics as the "host," and socio-economic contexts as the "environment." The purpose is to provide an evidence-based framework for multi-level interventions by identifying key factors driving obesity among Ugandan adults aged 18 and above. Using a cross-sectional mixed-methods design, the study conducted secondary analysis of data from the 2014 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (N=1,210 adults), supplemented by qualitative review of policy documents and literature. Descriptive statistics, bivariate chi-square tests, and multivariate logistic regression were employed to analyze associations, with diagnostic tests confirming model robustness (e.g., low multicollinearity, correct specification). Findings reveal an overall overweight/obesity prevalence of 25%, with significant host factors including female gender (Adj OR=4.3), middle age (35-54 years; Adj OR=3.1-4.1), and higher socioeconomic status (Adj OR=2.5-2.7). Peri-urban residence, as an environmental proxy, doubled the risk (Adj OR=2.6), inferring agent influences like increased access to processed foods (e.g., sugar-sweetened beverages, refined oils). The triad model proves relevant, highlighting systemic interactions beyond individual behaviors. In conclusion, obesity in Uganda stems from environmental facilitation of obesogenic agents interacting with vulnerable hosts. Recommendations include regulating food marketing, integrating NCD prevention into urban planning, and targeting high-risk groups through gender-specific programs to curb the epidemic effectively
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ItemFactors affecting household consumption in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)Household consumption sustains economic growth, which is the concrete embodiment of people's living standards. This study examines the factors affecting household consumption in Uganda. Using secondary data from the Uganda National Household Survey (2019/20), the study assessed the effect of household demographic and economic factors on household consumption in Uganda. This study utilised a multiple linear regression model to analyse the data. The empirical results indicated that household size, region, area of residence, main source of household income, savings, marital status and age of household head significantly affected household consumption in Uganda. Based on the findings, the study recommends that households take the initiative to save in times of high incomes in order to increase or maintain their level of consumption, that fiscal policies focus on households with many members and that the construction of urban infrastructure in rural areas be encouraged to increase economic activity and increase consumption levels.
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ItemEffect of exchange rate volatility on Uganda’s trade performance (1989–2024)(Makerere University, 2026)This study examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on Uganda’s trade performance from 1989 to 2024, a period marked by persistent trade deficits and significant currency fluctuations. Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the research analyzes the long-run and short-run relationships between exchange rate volatility measured using a GARCH model and the trade balance, while controlling for real GDP, foreign direct investment, gross capital formation, inflation, and the real interest rate. The findings show that exchange rate volatility exerts a significant negative long-run impact on Uganda’s trade balance, pointing out the trade-dampening effect of currency changes. Real GDP growth improves the trade balance in the long run, whereas gross capital formation and FDI inflows are associated with a worsening trade position, likely due to their import-intensive nature. The error correction term confirms a swift adjustment to long-run equilibrium. The study concludes that stabilizing the exchange rate, diversifying exports, and coordinating macroeconomic policies are essential for enhancing Uganda’s trade competitiveness and external sector resilience. Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, Trade performance, Uganda, ARDL bounds testing, GARCH model.