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ItemDeterminants of high-interest rate spreads in Uganda(Makerere University, 2025)This study investigates the persistent and elevated interest rate spreads in Uganda’s banking sector over the period 2008Q1–2024Q4, despite sustained financial reforms and monetary policy interventions. With average spreads hovering around 11% notably higher than the Sub-Saharan African average of 7.5%. The analysis adopts the dealership model of banking under risk and imperfect competition to explore the structural and macro-financial determinants of this phenomenon. Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the study captures both short- and long-run dynamics between interest rate spreads and key variables: credit risk, return on assets, exchange rate, central bank rate, and private sector credit. Long-run results reveal that credit risk, profitability, exchange rate stability, and private sector credit expansion significantly compress spreads, while the central bank rate exerts upward pressure. In the short run, credit risk widens spreads, whereas improved bank performance narrows them. A significant and negative error correction term confirms the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium. These findings underscore the critical role of risk behavior, monetary policy transmission, and bank profitability in shaping Uganda’s intermediation margins. The study recommends targeted reforms to enhance credit risk management, strengthen policy transmission mechanisms, and deepen financial markets offering actionable insights for the Bank of Uganda and financial sector regulators committed to fostering a more efficient, competitive, and inclusive banking system Subject Keywords: High interest rate spreads; Uganda
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ItemDeterminants of household energy choice for cooking in Uganda(Makerere University, 2025)
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ItemEvaluating the impact of out-of-pocket expenditures on healthcare access in Uganda(Makerere University, 2025)Access to affordable healthcare in Uganda remains a major challenge due to the country’s heavy dependence on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. This study evaluates the impact of OOP expenditure on healthcare access using data from the 2022 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS). The analysis examines how direct household health spending influences health-seeking behavior, utilization of essential health services, and financial vulnerability, particularly among disadvantaged populations. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression models were applied to assess the effect of OOP payments on access to maternal health services, child healthcare, and treatment for common illnesses. Results revealed that OOP expenditure is a significant impediment to timely and adequate healthcare, with poorer households being disproportionately affected. A considerable number of respondents reported delaying or avoiding care due to cost, contributing to negative health outcomes and widening inequalities. The study highlights the urgent need for policy reforms aimed at reducing reliance on OOP payments through enhanced public health financing, expanded health insurance mechanisms, and targeted subsidies for vulnerable groups. Such interventions are essential for advancing progress toward universal health coverage and ensuring equitable access to healthcare services in Uganda
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ItemEffect of mobile money usage on bank account ownership and use in Uganda(Makerere University, 2025)Despite the widespread adoption of mobile money in Uganda, its usage has not consistently translated into broader engagement with formal financial services. This study examines the effect of mobile money usage on bank account ownership and use in Uganda, focusing on three dimensions: mobile phone access, mobile money accounts, and usage frequency and transaction types. Using data from the 2019/20 Uganda National Household Survey, this study investigated the relationship between mobile money usage on the bank account ownership and use outcomes: ownership of a bank or MDI account, recent use of the account in 30 days, and use of the account for advanced financial services such as saving or borrowing. The study provides robust evidence that mobile phone access forms a critical foundation for bank account ownership and use in Uganda. Age was positively associated with both bank/MDI account ownership (dy/dx = 0.006, p < 0.001) and the use of accounts for personal financial transactions (dy/dx = 0.003, p = 0.029), indicating that older adults are more likely to own and actively use formal financial accounts. Mobile money adoption also plays a complementary role in enhancing engagement with formal financial services, as shown by the positive effect of mobile money for personal financial transactions on account ownership (dy/dx = 0.120, p = 0.005) and usage for personal financial transactions (dy/dx = 0.225, p < 0.001). The study further highlights that the frequency of mobile money usage is a critical determinant of bank account ownership and use. Specifically, using a mobile money agent in the past 90 days significantly increased the use of bank/MDI accounts for personal financial transactions (dy/dx = 0.311, p = 0.041). Based on the study's findings, policymakers and financial institutions should incentivize advanced mobile money use for personal financial transactions to bridge users to formal banking, formalize strategic partnerships between banks and mobile network operators like MTN to create integrated products, and mandate the development of accessible, low-data digital banking platforms to ensure equitable access and deepen bank account ownership and use across Uganda. Subject Keywords: Mobile money usage; bank account ownership; Uganda
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ItemEffect of universal primary education on pupils’ academic performance(Makerere University, 2024-09)The study investigates the Effect of Universal Primary Education on pupils’ academic performance. Uganda started implementing the Universal Primary Education (UPE) program in January 1997. The initiative aimed at providing free primary education to all school-age children, increase access to education and improve literacy rates across the country. To examine this relationship, the study used time series data for 33 years from 1990 to 2022. The pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) was found to be stationary, according to the unit root test. However, the variables of pupils’ academic performance (SAP), trained teachers (TT), public spending on primary education (PEP), and gross school enrollment (GSE) became stationary after differencing. The order of integration was determined using the Phillip-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller root tests, which revealed a combination of I (1) and I (0) integration. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), the results show that gross school enrollment, public spending on primary education, and the presence of trained teachers positively correlate with pupils’ academic performance. In the policy perspective, the government should invest in building and maintaining school facilities, including classrooms, libraries and sanitation facilities, to accommodate the growing number of pupils and provide a conducive learning environment. Second, the government should continue to allocate substantial and increased funds to primary education to maintain and enhance the quality of education. Third, the government can develop strategies to attract qualified individuals into the teaching profession and retain experienced teachers. This can include offering competitive salaries, benefits, and opportunities for career advancement. Subject keywords; Academic performance, Pupils, Universal primary education