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ItemImpact of value added tax policy reforms on revenue, poverty and inequality in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)This study analyses the impact of Value Added Tax (VAT) policy reforms on government revenue, poverty, income inequality, and household consumption in Uganda. VAT is a central component of domestic revenue mobilisation, yet persistent concerns remain regarding its distributional and welfare implications. Using the Uganda tax–benefit microsimulation model (UGAMOD) and data from the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) 2016/17 and Uganda Revenue Authority, the study examines the incidence of VAT across consumption deciles and simulates alternative VAT policy scenarios while holding the existing tax base, exemptions, and zero-rated items constant. Specifically, the analysis assesses the distribution of VAT burdens across households, evaluates the welfare effects of the current VAT system, and estimates the revenue, poverty, inequality, and consumption impacts of increasing the standard VAT rate from the baseline of 18 percent to 19 percent and 20 percent. The results indicate that VAT in Uganda exhibits mild but non-linear progressivity. Middle-income households bear the highest VAT burden relative to their consumption, while poorer households are partially protected through exemptions and zero-rated essential goods. The findings show that increases in the VAT rate generate substantial additional government revenue; however, these gains are accompanied by modest increases in consumption-based poverty, particularly among households living near the poverty line, male-headed households, and households with children, due to higher consumer prices. Inequality declines slightly following VAT rate increases, reflecting the larger absolute VAT contributions of higher income households, though the magnitude of this effect is small. vi The study concludes that while VAT remains an efficient instrument for domestic revenue mobilisation in Uganda, VAT reforms involve clear trade-offs between revenue generation, poverty outcomes, and household welfare. It emphasises the importance of using microsimulation tools such as UGAMOD to inform evidence-based tax policy and recommends that any VAT rate increases be accompanied by well-targeted compensatory measures, including social protection interventions, to mitigate adverse welfare effects on poor and vulnerable households.
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ItemExternal debt burden and economic growth in Uganda (1985-2020)(Makerere University, 2021)The main objective of the study was to assess the impact external debt burden on economic growth in Uganda. Different from previous studies, in addition to being country specific, the study also uses a longer time series period. The study is an extension of the Barro (1990) in which he has interpreted external debt as an extended tool of the fiscal policy which has long term effect on economic growth. It adopts the Error Correlation Model (ECM) for analysis. The results obtained from the analysis reveal that external debt has a significant negative effect on economic growth of Uganda Inflation and Official Development Assistance were also found to have a significant negative effect on economic growth. These results were tested for robustness and none of the tests revealed any inconsistency or any of the common econometric problems associated with time series data. Based on the results obtained the study recommended that government should expeditiously seek to implement structural reforms geared towards fiscal consolidation, debt management, public sector reform and tax reform which are necessary for economic expansion as well as for fiscal and debt sustainability. The study further recommends that government should opt for domestic alternatives like improving the quality and quantity of labor force in the country which will boost production and income there by expanding the tax base which will reduce reliance on external assistance especially external debt.
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Item[Dataset from a study on] shifting from degenerative to regenerative farming: evidence from fecal sludge fertilizer use in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)To combat land degradation and climate change, agriculture must transition from linear "extraction and disposal" systems to a circular economy. Fecal sludge-derived fertilizer (FSDF) offers a restorative solution due to its richness in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. However, negative social perceptions and low marketability limit its agricultural adoption. This study evaluates the economic and market viability of FSDF in Uganda by analyzing farmer preferences for five fertilizer attributes, focusing on "residual effect" as an indicator of readiness to adopt circular economy practices. Utilizing a discrete choice experiment and mixed logit models to account for scale and preference heterogeneity, the study identified the most preferred attributes and key drivers of farmer behavior. The results reveal that farmers strongly prefer a long residual effect, and product certification. Significant preference heterogeneity exists, driven primarily by access to credit and membership in agricultural or non-agricultural groups. Notably, farmers are willing to pay the highest premium for a longer residual effect (USD 1.06), followed by certification (USD 0.29/kg). The estimated maximum total willingness to pay is USD 1.82, which aligns with current market prices, confirming that FSDF is commercially competitive. The study concludes that farmers are willing to transition from inorganic to organic fertilizers due to the high value placed on the residual effect. Large-scale FSDF production is commercially viable if manufacturers prioritize certification while maintaining organic integrity. Furthermore, adoption can be accelerated through targeted awareness campaigns to mitigate social stigma and by leveraging group memberships to facilitate knowledge sharing.
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ItemTechnical efficiency, technological change, and returns to scale in the production of selected food crops in Uganda(Makerere University, 2026)Although the agriculture sector is an important sector for food security, poverty reduction and overall economic growth in Uganda, the productivity of the food crop sub-sector remains unsatisfactory. While existing studies have mainly been cross-sectional due to lack of panel data, it is imperative that evidence is provided on the temporal performance of the sector across specific major subsectors, highlighting the aspects that have consistently resulted into favourable positive impacts and those that have resulted into poor performance, in order to enhance existing strategies aimed at improving productivity in the sector. The study estimated and investigated three components of productivity; technical efficiency, technological change, and returns to scale in four of the country’s major food crops; maize, beans, banana, and cassava for the period between 20052010. The study also established the determinants of the observed technical efficiency during the same period. Using national panel data for 2005/06 and 2009/10 collected by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, the study utilized two econometric approaches; a translog stochastic frontier production function model to estimate technical efficiency, technological change and returns to scale, and a robust ordinary least squares regression to establish the determinants of technical efficiency. The results revealed that mean technical efficiency across the four food crop farming households was low during the study period, estimated at 22%, 15%, 15% and 14% for maize, beans, banana and cassava farming households respectively. These results imply that there would still be a possibility to produce 78%, 85%, 85%, 86% more output of maize, beans, banana, and cassava respectively, using the same resources and at the existing technology. Mean technical efficiency declined between the two time periods, and significantly so (at 1% level) for both beans and banana farming households. The key factors that determined technical efficiency across the four farming households were education, extension visits, crop area, location where a household was located, whether in the rural or urban area, and housing index which was composed of a number of features that would indicate the well-being of a household. Although purchased inputs would ordinarily be expected to increase food crop productivity, improvement in productivity among the farming households was propelled more by technical change, resulting from intensified use of both family and hired labour, than technical efficiency. Maize and cassava farming households exhibited increasing returns to scale, implying that expanded use of purchased inputs and crop area would be beneficial to raise their productivity. On the contrary, bean and banana production exhibited decreasing returns to scale, implying that it would neither be worthwhile expanding the use of purchased inputs, nor crop area at the existing technology. In terms of policy, the results underscore the need for government to promote the use of purchased farm inputs through market interventions that will enable input and output prices to motivate investment by maize and cassava farming households, and effort to improve the level of technology to raise returns to scale for beans and banana. Across the four crops, government should pursue a land reform policy that will support farming households to secure and expand food crop area in rural areas, provide market supportive road and physical infrastructure, education and extension support for household heads and spouses, specifically on market dynamics of purchased inputs and food crop output, in order to enhance food crop productivity.
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ItemGross domestic savings and economic growth in Uganda(Makerere Univeristy, 2025)This study examined the effect of gross domestic savings on economic growth in Uganda using annual time series data from 1989 to 2023. Guided by the Solow growth theory, the study employed econometric techniques including the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test for stationary, Johansen co-integration test for long-run relationships, and Ordinary Least Squares regression for estimation. Empirical findings revealed that gross domestic savings and foreign direct investment positively and significantly affect economic growth, while inflation and population growth have negative and significant effects. Trade openness was positive but statistically insignificant. The model explained approximately 63.8% of the variation in economic growth, and diagnostic tests confirmed its reliability. The study concludes that economic growth in Uganda depends largely on increased savings mobilization, attraction of sustainable foreign investment, price stability, and effective population management. It recommends that the government prioritize policies aimed at encouraging domestic savings, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and aligning population growth with resource capacity to achieve longterm, sustainable economic development.