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ItemThe effect of carbon emissions on coffee production in Uganda.(Makerere University, 2026)Coffee is an important source of export earnings, employment and rural livelihoods in Uganda. However, increasing carbon emissions pose challenges to agricultural production, particularly in rain-fed farming systems. Understanding the relationship between carbon emissions and coffee production is therefore important for developing sustainable agricultural policies. This study examined the short-run and long-run effects of carbon emissions on coffee production in Uganda from 1984 to 2023. Specifically, the study assessed the effects of carbon emissions on coffee production while controlling for agricultural land, fertilizer use, real GDP growth and general government final consumption expenditure. The study employed a quantitative time-series research design using annual secondary data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships. The bounds test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship among the study variables (F-statistic = 5.567). The results revealed that carbon emissions had a negative and statistically significant short-run effect on coffee production, with a coefficient of -12.41, but a positive and statistically significant long-run relationship, with a coefficient of 12.18. The error correction coefficient of -0.663 indicated that approximately 66.3% of deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected annually. Agricultural land had a negative and statistically significant long-run relationship with coffee production, while real GDP growth and government expenditure had positive and statistically significant long-run relationships. Diagnostic tests generally confirmed the stability of the estimated model. The study recommends strengthening climate-smart and climate-resilient coffee production through the promotion of agroforestry, sustainable land management, soil conservation and appropriate agricultural technologies to mitigate short-run climate-related production disruptions and support the long-term sustainability of Uganda's coffee sector. Keywords: Carbon emissions; coffee production; climate change; ARDL; Uganda; climate-smart agriculture.
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ItemValue for money and performance of procurement contracts in religious institutions: The case study of Kampala archdiocese (Catholic Church).(Makerere University, 2020)Procurement accounts for approximately 60–70% of total expenditure in faith-based organizations, making it a critical determinant of organizational performance and financial stewardship. Despite the introduction of formal procurement systems in the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Kampala, persistent challenges such as contract under-performance, failure of income-generating projects, and weak adherence to technical standards have raised concerns about the realisation of value for money (VfM). This study examined the relationship between VfM and the performance of procurement contracts in religious institutions, focusing on Christ the King Deanery. Specifically, it assessed the level of VfM in procurement processes, evaluated contract performance, and established the relationship between VfM and contract performance. A descriptive and analytical research design was adopted, involving a sample of 30 respondents from treasury, procurement, and administration departments selected through stratified and random sampling. Data were collected using questionnaires and observation, and analysed using descriptive statistics and Pearson’s correlation. Regarding VfM integration, 83% of respondents confirmed the existence of procurement reforms, 73% indicated that procurement decisions balance cost and quality, and 76% agreed that VfM enhances competition, indicating strong alignment with VfM principles. On contract performance, 77% affirmed adherence to agreed frameworks and 73% confirmed compliance with ethical standards; however, a significant weakness emerged in technical compliance, with 57% reporting inconsistencies in applying technical standards during tendering. Correlation analysis revealed a strong positive relationship between VfM and procurement performance (r = 0.781, p < 0.05), confirming that improvements in VfM practices are associated with better contract outcomes. The study concludes that although VfM principles are largely embedded in procurement systems, gaps in technical capacity undermine optimal contract performance. It recommends strengthening technical procurement competencies, standardizing procedures, and recruiting qualified professionals across all Church levels.
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ItemThe conditional association between internet use and educational attainment, life expectancy and income per capita.(Makerere University, 2026)Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the lowest secondary school enrolment, life expectancy, and income per capita of any region, although internet use has grown rapidly. This dissertation examined whether the associations between internet use and these outcomes depend on electricity access and institutional quality. The study used panel data from the World Development Indicators and the Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2000–2023: 40 countries (956 observations) for education, 40 countries (920 observations, 2001–2023) for health, and 35 countries (840 observations) for income per capita. Fixed-effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and threshold interactions were estimated. For education, the conditioning hypothesis was supported, but not as expected. Internet use was positively associated with secondary school enrolment only when electricity access was high and institutional quality, proxied by government effectiveness, was below the median. For health, the conditioning hypothesis was not supported (p = 0.143). A positive static association between internet use and life expectancy did not survive a dynamic specification, the exclusion of Mauritius and Seychelles, or estimation for low-income countries alone. For income per capita, the conditioning hypothesis was supported. High institutional quality proxied by regulatory quality raised the elasticity of income per capita with respect to internet use in both models, in every income group and in all robustness checks. The interaction between internet use and electricity access was not robust. With year effects, the elasticities ranged from 0.013 (not significant) to 0.062. The associations differ by outcome and are sensitive to data coverage and specification. Connectivity programmes should be evaluated alongside regulation, electricity, and public services. Specifically, school-connectivity programmes should be piloted with electricity and evaluated before scaling up, while primary completion remains central to raising secondary school enrolment; digital health tools should be evaluated directly and routine immunisation protected; and network investment should be paired with regulatory reforms, such as easier licensing, enforcement of online contracts and competition among network operators. Keywords: Internet use, Institutional quality, Electricity access, Educational attainment, Life expectancy, Income per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa
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ItemThe relationship between the social security fund scheme and economic growth in Uganda.(Makerere University, 2026)This study examined the relationship between the social security fund scheme and economic growth in Uganda, focusing on National Social Security Fund (NSSF) total assets and contributions. Despite substantial growth in NSSF resources over time, Uganda’s economic growth has remained variable, creating a need to establish how the different components of the social security fund scheme are associated with economic performance. The study employed a quantitative explanatory time-series design using annual data for the period 1995–2025. Economic growth was measured by annual real GDP growth, while NSSF total assets and NSSF contributions were expressed as percentages of GDP. Gross fixed capital formation, inflation and population growth were included as control variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was employed after unit-root tests established a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables, with none integrated of order I(2). Two separate objective-specific ARDL models were estimated for NSSF total assets and NSSF contributions. The ARDL bounds tests provided evidence of long-run levels relationships in both models. For the first objective, NSSF total assets/GDP had a negative long-run coefficient of −0.310, statistically significant at the 10 percent level. For the second objective, NSSF contributions/GDP had a positive long-run coefficient of 0.342, statistically significant at the 5 percent level. Gross fixed capital formation and population growth were statistically insignificant in both models, while the relationship between inflation and economic growth differed across the two specifications. The error-correction coefficients were negative and statistically significant, indicating relatively rapid adjustment towards the estimated long-run relationships following short-run disturbances. The post-estimation diagnostic tests generally supported the adequacy of the estimated models. The study concludes that NSSF contributions and accumulated assets exhibit different long run relationships with economic growth in Uganda. Contributions were positively associated with economic growth, whereas total assets exhibited a negative association over the period examined. These findings should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects, given the possibility of endogeneity and reverse causality. The study therefore recommends that contribution mobilization and asset accumulation be considered separately in social security and economic-policy discussions, while maintaining prudent management and ix protection of members’ retirement savings. Keywords: Social Security Fund; NSSF Contributions; NSSF Total Assets; Economic Growth; Uganda.
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ItemIndustrialization and environmental sustainability in Uganda (1993-2023)(Makerere University, 2025)This study examines the impact of industrialization on environmental sustainability in Uganda over the period 1993-2023, a time marked by steady economic transformation and growing environmental pressures. Guided by an industrialization-augmented Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to explore both the linear and non-linear effects of industrial activity on environmental quality, proxied by per capita CO2 emissions. The analysis further incorporates key macroeconomic and structural controls, including real GDP per capita, services value added, trade openness, and primary school enrolment. The empirical results show that industrialization significantly increases carbon emissions in the short run, reflecting the carbon-intensive nature of Uganda’s manufacturing sector. In the long run, the squared term of industrialization is negative and statistically significant, indicating the presence of an industrialization-EKC relationship in which emissions rise during early industrial growth but decline after a certain threshold of industrial development is reached. Among the control variables, trade openness and real GDP per capita tend to heighten emissions, while expansion in the services sector and improvements in education contribute to environmental quality. The error-correction term is native and highly significant, confirming a stable long-run equilibrium and rapid adjustment of emissions to shock. Overall, the findings highlight the dual challenge of pursuing industrialization while maintaining environmental sustainability. Policy responses should prioritize cleaner industrial technologies, stricter enforcement of environmental standards, green-oriented educational initiatives, and greater support for the expansion of low-emission service activities. These measures are essential for ensuring that Uganda’s industrialization pathway supports both economic transformation and long-term environmental protection. Keywords: Industrialization; environmental sustainability; ARDL; ECM; Uganda.