Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC)

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    Access and use of credit in Uganda: Unlocking the dilemma of financing small holder farmers.
    (EPRC, 2014-01-12) Munyambonera, Ezra ; Mayanja, Musa Lwanga ; Nampeewo, Dorothy ; Adong, Annet
    The study investigates the extent of access and use of credit by small holder farmers in Uganda. Despite several interventions in agricultural financing by government, access to credit by smallholder farmers has remained very low and stagnating over the years. In understanding the extent of the problem, the study uses information from the various agricultural financing initiatives government has implemented over the years including prosperity for all (PSA) of 2008, the national agricultural advisory services (2001), entandikwa scheme (1996), the recent agricultural credit facility (ACF) and microfinance support centre (MSCL), among others; it uses the Uganda Census of Agriculture dataset collected in 2008/09 to provide some insights on access to credit by agricultural households and examines two successful models of Centenary Rural Financing Scheme and Uganda Cooperative Alliance-Area Cooperative Enterprise (ACE) in promoting access to financial services to the rural poor. On the previous interventions by government in agricultural financing, the study observes that weak institutional framework for co-ordination, financing and implementation could have affected their impact. Insights from UCA (2008/09) data show that access to credit by agricultural households remain very low at 11.3 percent. This could be blamed on the policy failures of the various agricultural financing initiatives that government has implemented over the years, poor response of formal commercial banks to agricultural lending and weak regulation of the microfinance institutions at (Tier-4) to effectively deliver credit to small holder farmers. A critical review of two successful models in prompting access to financial services by small holder farmers suggests that if government is to succeed in promoting access to financial services by small holder farmers, there would need to have strong institutional framework for agricultural financing. Exploring the establishment of a rural or agricultural development bank could be a better option for Uganda.
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    The Agricultural Finance Year Book 2019
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2019-06-30) Economic Policy Research Centre, EPRC
    The 2019 Agricultural Finance Yearbook, which is the ninth edition in the series and coincides with the 10th anniversary of Agricultural Credit Facility (ACF), offers an in-depth analysis of the trends in the sector performance, with particular emphasis on interventions to promote agro-industrialisation. Chapter One of the book examines the trends in agriculture lending by both government and private financial institutions, the performance and implementation of the Bank of Uganda managed Agriculture Credit Facility over the last ten years; progress and lessons from the Agriculture Insurance Scheme; the rationale for an agriculture finance policy and the implication of the Tier-4 regulatory framework for agriculture finance. A key lesson drawn is that implementation challenges notwithstanding, the uptake of agriculture credit facilities offered by government and partners has steadily increased. This is reflected in portfolio of loans disbursed under ACF amounting to UGX 331 Billion, extended to 525 projects across the country, as at March 2019, as well as provision of complementary financial products by private institutions. Chapter Two of the book critically analyses the innovations that have impacted on the sector with a view to accelerating financial inclusion, such as the introduction and operationalisation of digital payments across the agriculture value chain, easing access to agriculture loans through agent banking, developments in collateral financing through the Warehouse Receipts System. In addition, the book chronicles unique innovations like Centenary Bank’s CenteSupa Woman club as well as interventions to encourage Agricultural Small Medium Enterprise (SME) lending. In the third chapter, evidence is provided using case studies, to examine the financing of agricultural value chains. This includes the role of Public-Private Producer Partnerships in the case of oil palm; financing the country’s integration in the global value chain referring to the case of cotton and textile industry, modalities employed by the development partners and private actors in financing the coffee value chain as well as looking at the development partners perspectives in the case of maize value chain financing in Uganda. Chapter Four assesses the opportunities for equity investments in the agriculture sector, use of credit guarantees to finance agriculture, capacities and institutional governance of Savings and Credit Cooperatives Associations Organisation—all aimed at boosting investments in agriculture sector. I appreciate EPRC’s role of fostering sustainable growth and development of the Ugandan economy by advancing the role of research in policy processes. The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development shall continue to ensure that financing of agriculture is a priority. I highly recommend this insightful book to all stakeholders working in, or with an interest in, the agricultural sector in Uganda.
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    Attracting investments using tax incentives in Uganda: The effective tax
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2019-03-30) Lakuma, Corti Paul
    Uganda operates a wide array of tax incentives schemes to attract investments like other countries in East Africa. However, due to significant amount of revenue foregone due to such schemes, Uganda has embarked on the process of rationalizing its overall incentive regime. This study examines the tax burden of various tax incentives schemes operational in Uganda by estimating the effective marginal tax rates (EMTR) and effective average tax rates (EATR). We find sectoral variations in effective average tax rates due to a selective tax holiday and preferential income tax. Overall, tax holidays and preferential income tax rates lower the effective tax burden to a single digit percent and encourage individual tax avoidance strategies. We find that the surge inflation registered during 2010/11 had an adverse effect on effective tax rates. Furthermore, our results confirm in previous findings that tax holidays effectively reduce EATR and favour high-profit short-lived (less than 5 years) investment projects raising doubts about their overall rationale.
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    Comparing the performance of Uganda’s intra-East African Community trade and other trading blocs: A gravity model analysis.
    (EPRC, 2013) Shinyekwa, Isaac ; Othieno, Lawrence
    This paper examines factors that determine Uganda’s trade flows and specifically compares the impact and performance of the different trade blocs on Uganda’s trade patterns and flows. The empirical question is whether Uganda’s trade is getting more integrated in the East African Community (EAC) region or is still dominated by other trading blocs, namely European Union (EU), Asia and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)? Two analytical approaches are used, namely: trade indicators and estimation of the gravity models using data extracted from COMTRADE for the period 2001 – 2009 (panel). We estimate determinants of export and import trade flows separately using static random, dynamic random and IV GMM models. The results suggest a strong relationship between belonging to a trading bloc and trade flows. Likewise, Uganda’s import and export trade flows have conspicuously adjusted to the gravitational forces of the EAC during the progress of the integration. Whereas exports are being integrated more in the EAC and COMESA regions, imports are more integrated in the Asian and EU trading blocs. Therefore, strong links with trading blocs outside the EAC (i.e. EU and Asia) with regards to imports still exist. The trade indicators demonstrate that Uganda exports largely primary products and imports manufactured products. It is imperative for Uganda to target implementation of regional trade agreements to expand the country’s export markets. The EAC region should attract investment in production of high technology products to increase intra-EAC imports and reduce imports from Asia and the EU.
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    Constraints to agricultural technology adoption in Uganda: Evidence from the 2005/06-2009/10 Uganda National Panel Survey.
    (EPRC, 2013-05-22) Ibrahim, Kasirye
    The study examines the determinants of improved agricultural technologies adoption in Uganda, using a nationally representative panel data set of 1,600 farming households, collected by the Ugandan Bureau of Statistics in 2005/6 and 2009/10. Two agricultural technologies— improved seeds and fertilizer—out of the seven types identified by the study were further considered and analyzed. Estimates from the probit regression model show that farmers with low education and land holdings are less likely to adopt improved seeds and fertilizer, while peer effects play a big role in influencing farmers to either use improved seeds or fertilizer. Furthermore, cattle keeping farmers in Western Uganda are more likely to abandon fertilizers and possibly resort to organic manure from livestock excreta. Policy, therefore, should be directed at addressing the supply side constraints of agricultural technologies. Keywords: Agricultural technologies adoption, Improved seeds and fertilizer, Farming households, Uganda
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    Does teaching methods and availability of teaching resources influence pupil’s performance?: evidence from four districts in Uganda
    ( 2010-09) Guloba, Madina ; Wokadala, James ; Lawrence, Bategeka
    This paper explores ways of improving education quality in Universal Primary Education (UPE) schools in Uganda. Following the introduction of UPE in Uganda in 1997, primary school enrollment increased tremendously, leading to a strain on existing teaching resources such as classrooms, teachers’ accommodation, toilets, teachers, chalk, and students’ furniture among others. The inadequacy of teaching resources partly attributes to the low quality of education in UPE schools as reflected in the Primary three and six pupils’ performance in literacy and numeracy. Accordingly, Government responded by increasing supply of teaching resources with the hope of improving the quality of education in UPE schools. The major findings of the paper include: i) Supplying more teaching resources in the current Uganda context should not be the number one priority intervention if the quality of education in public primary school is to be improved. Paradoxically, supply of teaching resources is found to have adverse effects on education quality. This suggests that the supply of teaching resources in these schools seem to be done at the expense of effective teaching. ii) Primary school teachers employ teacher-centred methods of teaching, which are less effective. The study finds that child-centred methods of teaching are more effective for both males and females as regards improvement of education quality. Yet, teachers in UPE schools hardly employ child-centred approaches to teaching, which mainly explains the poor quality of education in UPE schools. iii) There is urgent need for the ministry in charge of education to focus more on teacher supervision to compel teachers to attend to their duties and use child centred methods of teaching. This calls for increased budget for school inspection and teacher supervision.
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    Economic and institutional efficiency of the National Agricultural Advisory Services’ programme: the case of Iganga District
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2011-06) Okoboi, Geofrey ; Muwanika, R. Fred ; Mugisha, Xavier ; Nyende, Magiddu
    This paper examines the technical and institutional efficiency of the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) programme implementation in Iganga district. The Cost Effective Analysis (CEA) and stochastic frontier analysis methods were used to examine technical efficiency while expenditure tracking and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) methods were applied to assess institutional efficiency. The analysis demonstrates that NAADS interventions have not had a significant impact on the output, productivity and income of the farmers in Iganga district. Moreover, NAADS programme faces implementation weaknesses such as nepotism that affects the selection of beneficiaries as well as enterprises, to the extent that some farmers are apathetic about the success or failure of NAADS Programme. Other observed weaknesses in NAADS implementation include late disbursement of funds, very low counterpart funding by the local government and the farmers, and poor monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the programme. Based on the results, we suggest a major review of the implementation process of NAADS programme in general and Iganga district NAADS in particular.
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    Economic and Social Upgrading in the Mobile Telecommunications Industry: The Case MTN Uganda
    (Economic Policy Research Center, Makerere University, 2013-05) Shinyekwa, Isaac
    Worldwide leaving an indelible mark in history by revolutionising lifestyles of individual, Systems, governments and entities. A number of factors have contributed to this phenomenon. Uganda has not been an exception and in some instances, has pioneered the use of mobile phone attributes to change lives. Following deregulation and liberalization in Uganda in the past two decades, the telecommunications industry has been characterised by a dynamic environment, and unprecedented innovations. This has happened at a time the sector is experiencing new technological developments, creating new opportunities. The growth and expansion of the telecommunications has been characterised by heavy involvement of multinational companies with potential labour issues within these Global Production Networks (GPN). These companies conduct their business along established value chains that fit to form the entire industry, such as production of equipment, software development, marketing of the products and services, and distributors among others. This paper poses a number of questions in this regard: 1. What are the rights and entitlements of workers as social actors in as far as employment is concerned along the value chain? 2. Do the workers have access to better work as a result of economic upgrading in the Mobile Phone Network Operators (MNOs)? 3. Are the work conditions that is, protection and rights in line with International Labour Organization (ILO) decent work framework (employment, standards at work and rights to work, social protection and social dialogue)? 4. With technological advancement, a number of services are now offered by MNOs, such as money transfer, Short Messaging Systems (SMS) for health, business and farming purposes. What benefits have these brought to the users and what are the challenges that come with them? The paper adopted both quantitative and qualitative techniques to collect data from representatives and stakeholders at the different nodes of the value chain. The data collection instruments included semi structured interview schedule, key informants interview schedule, documentation and a checklist. Interviews were conducted with regulators; financial Institutions; policy makers; trade union officials; money transfer stakeholders; employees of MTN Uganda, consumers and users; outlets; the franchisees, street vendors; and the Grameen AppLab project officials). This was complimented by a desk review to gather data from a variety of online resources (websites).
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    Fiscal policy consistency and its implications for macroeconomic aggregates: the case of Uganda
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2010-06) Eria, Hisali
    The relationship between growth in monetary aggregates and price changes continues to be a subject of considerable debate both in the academic and policy circles. Whereas the more ‘conservative’ policy makers hold that growth in monetary aggregates bear proportionately on prices, ‘liberals’ on the other hand suggest a fairly weak relationship and instead mainly attribute sustained price changes to other innovations (including structural weaknesses and poor productive capacity). This study employed vector autoregression techniques (and its variants) to examine both short term as well as long term interactions between selected macroeconomic aggregates with particular focus on the relationship between money growth and price changes. Results from both the reduced form vector autoregression specification and the contemporaneous structural vector autoregression show a weak causation from growth in monetary aggregates to price changes, but the link between changes in monetary aggregates and prices becomes stronger in the long run. The results also point to a strong relationship between price changes on the one hand and exchange rate depreciation, and past inflation outcomes on the other. The results imply a potential for increased revenue from monetisation, at least up to some feasible as well as the need to focus on other possible sources of price variations. In general, whereas it is possible for the relationship between prices and money to weaken, budget deficits beyond ‘certain financeable limits’ will clearly negate the possibility of attaining other objectives of macroeconomic policy. A natural concern that arises in such a context is one of sustainability and compatibility of the budget deficit with other macroeconomic targets. We also employed the government budget accounting framework to analyse sustainability of Uganda’s current fiscal stance. The results show that the consolidated deficit is consistent with attainment of target outcomes for other macroeconomic variables, most notably the rates of inflation and GDP growth rates. The inflation target has however, been achieved at the cost of an unsustainable domestic debt. From a policy perspective, issuing domestic debt at such a high real interest rates will allow lower money growth but at the cost of future increases in debt service obligations and thus future budget deterioration.
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    Food insecurity in Uganda: a dilemma to achieving the hunger Millennium Development Goal
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2010-07) Ssewanyana, Sarah ; Kasirye, Ibrahim
    The status of food security in Uganda is worrying. The share of Ugandans suffering from food insecurity measured in terms of caloric intake is alarmingly high with low rates of income poverty. Based on the 2005/06 Uganda National Household Survey data, the study provides insights into access to food at household level. More importantly, the study shows that average caloric intake stood at 1,970 calories per person per day, which is below the minimum caloric requirement of 2,200 calories. As such, a population of 17.5 million Ugandans in 3.1 million households were unable to meet the minimum caloric requirement in 2006. This raises questions on whether Uganda will be able to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1: halving extreme poverty and hunger by 2015. While Uganda is on track to halve extreme poverty, it is less likely to halve extreme hunger by 2015. Yet the results suggest that food insecurity and income poverty are closely linked. Similarly, food insecurity at household level is closely linked to child nutrition status. In other words, antipoverty interventions and interventions to address food insecurity and child nutrition status have to be closely linked. The results further suggest that income growth, land under cultivation, changes in food prices and education attainment of household head significantly impact on caloric intake. There are significant seasonal fluctuations in dietary intakes – calories and protein. Improving post-harvest storage technologies and preservation methods; creating remunerative employment especially for the urban population; and strengthening the food distribution mechanisms would go a long way in addressing these seasonal fluctuations. Food insecurity is also marked with significant spatial variations that need to be taken into account in designing anti‐food insecurity interventions. The famine that hit some districts during 2009 demonstrates that adverse effects on the agricultural sector directly increase vulnerability to food insecurity. At the same time, increasing land under cultivation improves food security at household level. This suggests that improving agricultural productivity is a key to long‐term food security.
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    Fostering a sustainable agro-industrialisation agenda in Uganda
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2018-12-30) Economic Policy Research Centre, EPRC
    Uganda’s long-term goal, as outlined in the Vision 2040, is to industrialize and transform the structure of the economy. Given the dominance of agriculture as a source of livelihood, there is no doubt that Agro-industrialization (AGI) offers a great opportunity for the country to embark on its aspiration of transitioning into a modern industrial economy. In pursuit of this goal, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) under the auspices of the Strategic Economic Policy and Management (STEPMAN) Forum set out in 2017 to provide evidence-based practical policy solutions to address the slowdown in performance of the Ugandan economy. The Forum accordingly tasked the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) to take lead in conducting an in-depth policy oriented research to guide Uganda’s AGI agenda for the next five years. The product of that initiative is this report titled ‘Fostering a Sustainable Agro-Industrialization Agenda in Uganda’. This development prompted EPRC to devote most of its 2017/2018 research work plan to AGI activities culminating into production of policy notes on Transformative approach to Uganda’s export strategy and Agro-Industrialization for Inclusive Growth and Development’ which are a precursor to the final report. The actionable policy recommendations in the AGI Report also translated into Key Result Areas to guide Programme-Based Budgeting for Public Investment Management in Agro-Industry (PIMA) in FY 2019/2020 and the medium term. I am happy to report that MoFPED through the PIMA Taskforce commenced period engagements in August 2018 with relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and private sector players, to act on some of the ground-breaking recommendations in the AGI draft report, including a shift from a piecemeal to a program approach for the AGI agenda. An AGI Steering Committee chaired by the Permanent Secretary/ Secretary to Treasury has also been formed to provide effective coordination of the Program. I am therefore pleased to present to you this report which identifies the immense benefits of the agriculture sector linked to industry, including adoption of better production technologies, expanding the export and domestic revenue bases of the country and creating necessary preconditions for Uganda’s structural transformation into a high value- added manufacturing economy. I acknowledge the invaluable contribution from all stakeholders including EPRC researchers and the report drafting team, various organizations that shared their data, and the editorial team. I pledge on behalf of the ministry, that government will continue to implement the report recommendations while continuing the engagement with the various stakeholders.
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    HIV/AIDS prevention interventions in Uganda: A policy simulation.
    (EPRC, 2013-06-23) Gemma, Ahaibwe ; Ibrahim, Kasirye
    The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major health challenge in Uganda. The adult HIV/ AIDS prevalence rate had increased to 7.3 percent by 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2005/6. Consequently, understanding the programmes that can curb down the spread of the disease is both an economic and a public health priority. Previously, HIV/AIDS control programmes in Uganda have relied on the ABC strategy (Abstinence, Being Faithfull and Condon use). However, as the epidemic matured in Uganda, public health authorities have adopted additional programmes to combat the spread of HIV such as male circumcision and counselling as well as testing. This policy simulation estimates the potential costs and impact of rolling out two HIV prevention methods - Safe Male Circumcision and Voluntary Counseling and Testing- on the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Using data from the recent Uganda Aids Indicator Survey 2011 as well as administrative cost data, we estimate the potential costs and impact of expanding the above two methods of HIV/AIDS control. Results from the policy simulation suggest that scalingup safe male circumcision to reach 66% of the uncircumcised males aged 15-49 years would result in averting almost 121,278 new HIV infections through 2020, resulting in an average cost per HIV infection averted of $885 and net cost savings per infection averted of US$ 6,515. On the other hand, scaling up VCT to full coverage (100%) among adults (15-49 years) would result in averting 113,813 new infections through 2020, resulting in an average cost per HIV infection averted of $948 and net savings per infection averted of US$ 6,452.
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    Impacts and determinants of panel survey attrition: the case of Northern Uganda survey 2004-2008
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2010-04) Kasirye, Ibrahim ; Ssewanyana, Sarah
    The paper analyses the impact of household attrition in the Northern Uganda Survey panel of 2004 and 2008. These surveys were designed to evaluate the performance of the first phase of the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF). The first survey was conducted in 2004 when the region faced heightened levels or rebel insurgency and the subsequent survey in 2008 when rebel hostilities had ceased. As such, the panel survey was plagued by a high level of attrition—at least 25 percent of the households could not be resurveyed in 2008. The paper examines the impacts of attrition on determinants of household welfare as well as household experience of insecurity shocks. The pattern of attrition is not random with households in urban areas and those that were resident in internally displaced person camps (IDPs) were more likely to be lost during the follow-up survey. Furthermore, residence in West Nile and Acholi sub-regions were key determinants of household attrition. Within these sub-regions, households with younger heads were more likely to be lost in Acholi while households with teenage children are more likely to be lost in West Nile. Finally, the attrition tests confirm that the regression coefficients differ significantly between households resurveyed and lost during the resurvey.
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    Improving Girls' access to secondary schooling
    ( 2013-06-11) Mildred, Barungi ; Ibrahim, Kasirye
    Despite the successful implementation of the Universal Secondary Education policy in Uganda in 2007, overall secondary school enrolments have remained low, especially for girls. Among other reasons, high cost of schooling is cited as the major constraint limiting access to secondary education. Uganda’s National Development Plan proposes to attain gender equity in secondary school enrolments through the provision of bursaries/stipends to poor girls to enable them attend school. In this study, we examine the potential impacts of this policy proposal (policy I) and compare it with the alternative of providing free transport on top of the stipends (policy II). The findings indicate that both policy proposals would generate net benefits to society but more benefits would accrue to provision of tuition stipends only. Compared to policy II, policy I is more cost effective and therefore the preferred policy option. Key words: Girls’ secondary school enrolment, policy options
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    Inflation differentials among Ugandan households: 1997 - 2007
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2010-06) Okidi, John ; Vincent, Nsubuga
    Since the structural adjustment days of the 1990s, targeting inflation to single digit rates has remained a predominant feature of Uganda’s macroeconomic strategy towards creating and sustaining an enabling environment for poverty-reducing growth. One of the most commonly advanced arguments for this inflation targeting strategy is the minimization of the erosion of the purchasing power of the poor. Implicit in this argument is the concern that inflation hurts the poor the most. However, since different consumers purchase different bundles of goods and services depending on personal and location-specific socioeconomic characteristics, when inflation rises beyond the targeted range, it is not obvious which income group experiences a relatively higher rate of inflation. Even when group-specific inflation rates are known, the sub-population with a higher relative rate of inflation may not necessary be the one that bears the brunt of a surge in inflation.
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    Institutional constraints to agriculture development in Uganda.
    (EPRC, 2013-05-11) Kasirye, Ibrahim ; Kiiza, Julius ; Bategeka, Lawrence
    Since the early 1990s, Uganda has implemented a number of reforms in the agricultural sector. However, in the past 10 years, the performance of the sector has lagged behind other sectors particularly services and industry. There are concerns among researchers and policy analysts that institutional constraints in agriculture play a central role in the lacklustre agricultural performance registered during the 2000s. This study examines the institutional constraints affecting agricultural production in Uganda. We recommend reforming the land tenure system as well as the architecture of the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries as means of dealing with the major constraints.
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    Investment opportunities and challenges in the potato value chain in Uganda
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2016-06-15) Mbowa, Swaibu ; Mwesigey, Francis
    A seed potato shortage is identified as a major problem that affects the quality of potato production in the Kigezi subregion. There are two dimensions of shortfalls in supply: (i) the limited volumes of clean seed produced, and (ii) inadequacies in the supply of the appropriate potato varieties to support industrial-level processing into crisps and high-quality frozen chips. The study shows that Uganda needs to produce approximately 25,400 metric tons of quality seed valued at Ugx 28.1 billion (US$ 8.2 million). It reveals that some of the seed supplied by private seed producers is of low quality; only 47% of the seed multipliers are registered, which points to the weaknesses in the seed regulatory system.
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    Limited health insurance coverage amidst upsurge of non-communicable diseases in Uganda
    (Economic Policy Research Centre, 2019-04-30) Mpuuga, Dablin ; Mbowa, Swaibu ; Odokonyero, Tonny
    This brief uses the 2016/17 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) and the World Development Indicators (WDI) to show the extent of health insurance coverage for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes, high blood pressure and heart diseases among others. Results indicate that: (i) NDCs affect people of all socio-economic groups; (ii) more Ugandans suffering from NCDs are willing to pay for health insurance, but very few are holders of insurance policies in this regard; (iii) other diseases like malaria are more easily insured compared to NCDs, an indication that the providers of health insurance services are not keen to insure sufferers of NCDs; (iv) there are regional differences in health insurance coverage as well as prevalence of NCDs, with the burden of NCDs more intense in the Bukedi, Busoga and Teso sub-regions, whereas NCDs are least prevalent in Kigezi and Ankole sub-regionsand (v) NCDs are likely to erode gains in poverty reduction at household level, because it is equally high among poor households with the least capacity to afford health insurance. We there by, recommend establishing special screening centres for NCDs in public health facilities especially health center II’s and III’s. This will promote early detection and early treatment hence curbing expensive costs for treating severe and chronic NCDs. Preventive measures need to be emphasized as well. These include regular body exercises and monitored nutrition which all lower the risk of NCDs. We further suggest incorporating and prioritizing NCDs into the proposed national health insurance scheme.
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    Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the EAC Regional Integration on Uganda: A recursive computable general equilibrium analysis
    ( 2013-05-11) Shinyekwa, Isaac ; Mawejje, Joseph
    The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integration on the Ugandan economy. Specifically, it analyses the likely effects of the asymmetric tariff reduction on the macro variables and quantifies the sectoral growth effects on the industrial, agricultural and services sectors. It adopts the General Equilibrium Model (CGE) for the analysis based on the Uganda 2007 Social Accounting Matrix. The primary policy simulation is the asymmetric reduction of internal tariffs across East African countries under assumptions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production. Other policy simulations that change these assumptions are analysed. Results indicate that the aggregate impact of internal tariff reduction under conditions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production is positive with average GDP growth improving by up to 0.3 percentage points over the period 2008 – 2021. However, the reduction in tariffs has negative implications for tax collections with import duties contracting by 0.3 percentage points, with no significant gains in direct taxes revenues. The rise in exports to the EAC region leads to a decline in the trade deficit by 0.8 percent during the simulation period. There are also significant growth gains for agriculture, industry and services sectors with the former registering growth improvements of 1.2 percentage points and the other two 0.7 percentage points. Therefore, Uganda should optimise gains within the EAC regional integration framework through tariff reduction and free movement of factors of production. Finally, the government should address infrastructural constraints (energy and transport) to foster growth in the manufacturing sector within the EAC region. Key words: Computable General Equilibrium, Social Accounting Matrix, recursive dynamic,
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