The association between cancer incidence, HIV prevalence, and GDP in Uganda

Abstract

The study aimed at examining the association of cancer incidence, HIV prevalence and GDP in Uganda. The study utilized secondary data sourced USAID reports for HIV, GDP data from World Bank economic outlook and cancer data from the Kampala cancer registry. Multivariate time series analysis was used, and variables were tested for cointegration, those that had cointegration, the vector error correction model was used while those that had no cointegration the vector autoregressive model was used to find out the association between cancer incidence, HIV prevalence and GDP in Uganda for each of the 10 selected cancers. Cancer of the cervix was the leading cancer among the females with a total number of 1963 of cases while Prostate cancer was the leading cancer among the males with a total number of 1542 of cases in Uganda from 1993-2014. The findings indicated that over time the Non-AIDS defining cancers that is stomach, eye, liver cancer and prostate cancer had a positive significant (p=0.000) relationship with HIV prevalence while colon (p=0.002), lung (p=0.00) and breast cancer (p=0.004) had a negative significant relationship with HIV prevalence. These cancers that is breast (p=0.00) and prostate (p=0.001) had a positive significant relationship with Gross Domestic Product while cancer of the lung (p=0.000) had a negative significant relationship with gross product in Uganda. AIDS defining cancers that is Non-Hodgkin cancer (p=0.001) had a positive significant relationship with HIV prevalence over time while cervical cancer (p=0.000) had a negative significant relationship with HIV prevalence. Cervical cancer (p=0.014) had a positive significant relationship with Gross Domestic Product in Uganda. The study recommended government to enhance policies that reduce HIV since it was observed that HIV had a significant relationship with cancer. In addition, government should encourage HIV patients to screen for NON- AIDS defining cancers since they are also at a risk for such cancers