A Simulation model of loan servicing for Savings and Credit Cooperative Organizations (SACCOs) under the poverty alleviation program

Abstract

Evaluating credit worthy SACCOs that receive Poverty Alleviation Funds has been considered as one of the main dilemmas that loan officers at the Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) in Uganda have to face in order to reduce the probability of default. The lending process involves application for loans from MFPED to the successful or unsuccessful repayment of the loan. The objective of the Project report was to develop a simulation model that can be used to analyze SACCOs that can / cannot pay back borrowed poverty alleviation funds to the MFPED. This objective was achieved through the use of Systems Thinking Educational Learning Laboratory with Animation (STELLA) software. In developing the simulation model the concepts of System Dynamics were used. The Dynamic Synthesis Methodology was used in the development process of the model because its a proven methodology used by experienced modelers. The experiments carried out indicate that SACCOs that apply for poverty alleviation funds can be easily evaluated based on the risk assessment of the credit worthiness a SACCO under different (What - if) scenarios. As a diagnostic tool this Simulation Model provides an insight into the underlying structures of a SACCO from which behavior over time and discreet events emerge. Loan officers can therefore use this Model to give advice to non credit worthy SACCOs on how to improve on the performance of their organizations so as to be worthy of receiving funding from the MFPED and rid themselves of poverty. The researcher recommends that further research be made on how the system can accommodate multiple users simultaneously evaluating credit worthy applicants in a busy networked environment.