The effect of public and private health care expenditure on malaria incidence in Uganda

Abstract

The incidence of malaria typically correlates negatively with percapita national income. Numerous existing research stress the positive impact on human capital that malaria incidence decline has on economic development. This signals the importance of reducing malaria incidence. This study investigated the effect of public and private healthcare spending on the incidence of malaria in Uganda. Using an ARDL model that takes into account reverse causality and incidental relationships, the studylooked at the link between malaria incidence and health spending for Uganda over a 20year period. The results indicate that, in the long run, anincrease in public spending of one percent significantly reduces malaria incidence by 0.196at the 10 percent level of significance. An increase in private health expenditure does not significantly influence malaria incidence at the 10 percent level of significance, but at the 15 percent level of significance, a one percent increase would lead to 0.018 percentdecrease in malaria incidence. GDP per capita and urban population growth significantly reduce malaria incidence by 0.464 and 0.619 percent respectively. Whereas apercentageincrease in female unemployment and income inequality significantly increase malaria incidence by 0.186 and 0.960 percent, and one percent increase in the number of female headed households also increases malaria incidence by1.947percent. However, in the short run, public spending reduces malaria incidence by 0.158 percent while private expenditure has no impact. Results also indicate that female headed households and urban population growth significantly reduce malaria incidence in the short run at the first lag by 0.924 and 0.809 percent,respectively while regulatory quality reduces malaria incidence by 0.129 percent. The ECT coefficient is -0.166, and is significant at one percent level of significance. This demonstrates that any divergence from the long-term equilibrium between the variables and the incidence of malaria may be corrected and regained on average every quarter at a rate of 0.166 percent. Finally, the study recommends that the government should increase budget allocation to malaria reduction campaign; strengthen programs to raise household income to support private health spending; and develop strategies for well-planned and organized urban centers.