Assessing the influence of road infrastructure development on land value dynamics in Kampala city

Abstract

There are demonstrable economic impacts of road infrastructure on land values (Negashi. et.al, 2022; Herrera. et.al, 2021; Shrestha, S. A., 2020; Song. et.al, 2019; Tideman. et.al, 2017). As such, these impacts have remained country-specific, and in Greater Kampala City, little is known about the consequences of such road infrastructure development on land value dynamics particularly the Kampala Northern Bypass (KNB). This study assesses the influence of road infrastructure development on land value dynamics in Kampala City with a key focus on the Kampala Northern Bypass (KNB). Specifically, it utilizes the Hedonic regression and image classification, (1) to characterize and quantify the historical changes in land values (2002-2016) that have occurred along the Kampala Northern Bypass and (2), to empirically quantify the economic impacts of the Kampala Northern bypass on land values. The study used four explanatory variables (accessibility, proximity, location, and road design) as the inherent factors of KNB associated with land value change. Six data collection areas were stratified and purposively selected within a 1km buffer one KNB, and respondents were randomly selected. Land values of (2002) and (2016) were obtained using a questionnaire. Subsequently, to detect historical changes in land use, Landsat 7 ETM Images from 2002, Landsat 5 TM images from 2010, and Landsat 8 (OLI/TRIS) images from 2018 were acquired at a resolution of 30m. Results from quantifying the impact of the KNB were statistically significant at P<0.05, thus suggesting 16 times higher the values of the land parcels after the construction of KNB by 2016. Further findings reported a very significant difference in the value of land across the six areas of data collection, and also accessibility, proximity, and road design were major attributing factors in land value change (p<0.05). There was no statistical significance of the locational factor and values of land under different land activities (p>0.05). In addition, land use conversion favors the built-up, and this research provides an opportunity for land value capture which can be used by the UNRA or KCCA in recovering the financial loans.