Effect of tax policy reforms on revenue mobilisation in Uganda (1988-2020)

Abstract

This study analyses Tax policy reforms and revenue mobilization in Uganda for the period 1988 to 2020 using annual time series data. The Augmented Dickey Fuller test and Phillips perron tests confirm the stationarity of the variables and these found that they were stationary at level and after differencing. This study further employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. The results indicate that in the long run Tax reforms, Inflation and Imports are statistically significant while in the short run Inflation, Imports, Interest rates and Tax reforms were significant at difference, first lag difference and second lag difference. In the long run Inflation and Imports are negatively related to tax revenue while Tax reform is positively related to tax revenue. In order to ensure increase in tax revenue tax reforms have to be strengthened by ensuring existence of a clear mandate of the tax reforms; ensuring high level political commitment from all stakeholders and emphasis of the intended benefits of the reforms to help overcome resistance; simplifying the tax system and curbing exemptions.