Assessment of the Impact of land cover change on carbon stock : a case study of Budongo Bugoma landscape

Abstract

Human activities have escalated the emission of greenhouse gases, intensifying global warming and leading to climate change. In Uganda, land use and cover change, particularly the conversion and degradation of forest land, have caused declines in terrestrial carbon stocks, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The Budongo-Bugoma landscape is notably affected by rapid anthropogenic land cover changes, impacting regional carbon stock levels. While there have been efforts to understand the historical impacts of these changes, predicting their future effects is crucial for developing efficient mitigation strategies, such as the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) project. This study assessed and predicted the impact of land cover change on carbon stocks in the Budongo-Bugoma landscape through the integration of the CA-Markov and InVEST models. From 2003 to 2023, the Budongo-Bugoma landscape experienced significant land cover changes, including an 80% expansion in farmland and a 65% increase in built-up areas, while grasslands declined by approximately 60%. Projections to 2043 suggest that farmland will cover about 38% of the landscape, indicating ongoing pressures on natural habitats. Carbon storage in the region increased by 6 million megagrams (Mg) between 2003 and 2023, with the Budongo region gaining 8 million Mg due to effective conservation efforts, while the Bugoma sub-region lost 2 million Mg due to deforestation and degradation. Despite afforestation efforts, projections indicate a net carbon loss of approximately 750,000 Mg by 2043, underscoring the need for enhanced conservation measures to effectively address carbon storage