Assessing the least-cost scenarios for electricity distribution network expansion : a case of South-Western Uganda

Abstract

Access to reliable electricity underpins socio-economic growth and poverty alleviation, yet rural Uganda faces persistent logistical and financial barriers to universal access. This study employs spatial optimization via OnSSET to evaluate least-cost expansion of electricity networks in South-western Uganda. Integrating high-resolution population, grid infrastructure, renewable resource, demand projection, and cost datasets, the model is calibrated with national electrification rates and development targets to ensure contextually accurate, policy-relevant projections. The study’s methodology encompasses data preparation, model calibration, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) estimation, geospatial least-cost optimization, and sensitivity checks, culminating in policy recommendations. Findings show that, although stand-alone and minigrid systems remain viable in remote areas to 2030, grid densification emerges by 2040 as the lowest-cost option for almost all settlements, shrinking off-grid areas to under 1%. Spatial analysis using Moran’s I and Gi* statistics reveals that 90% of priority investments cluster in major corridors; Kabale - Muko, Rukungiri - Kambuga, and Kisoro town, where schools, clinics, and tourism hubs can leverage reliable power. The study concludes that South-western Uganda’s electrification strategy should prioritize medium- and low-voltage grid extensions, reserving off-grid solutions for the most remote locations. Key recommendations include phased network upgrades (2025–2030), pilot solarhybrid mini-grids in hotspot areas, incorporation of dynamic planning dashboards for annual breakeven analyses, and linking electrification with productive-use financing. By aligning these measures with Uganda’s Vision 2040, National Development Plan IV, and SDG 7, the research provides an evidence-based, geospatial roadmap for accelerating universal energy access.