Spatial and temporal distribution of African Swine Fever in Uganda (2010-2023)

Abstract

Background: Identifying patterns of geographical variations in ASF is the gateway to understating its magnitude. Therefore, this study examined the spatial and temporal distribution of African swine fever (ASF) in Uganda from 2010 to 2023. Method: The study utilized a comprehensive dataset from monthly reports from District Veterinary Officers (DVOs) to the Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), using the GPS co-ordinates, ASF cases were mapped using QGIS to show ASF temporal-spatial distribution and associated factors of the disease in Uganda. Moral I analysis was used to define clusters of ASF. Results: The data shows ASF cases distributed throughout the country with pronounced cases of ASF in the Central Region (Wakiso, Luwero and Masaka) making it a significant hotspot for the disease, with few cases in North-Eastern region of Uganda. The temporal analysis revealed occurrence of ASF disease year-round, notable peak cases were observed during specific periods particularly in early 2014, districts with ≥ 30000 pigs had higher cases (61-200) of ASF disease. The Moran I (≥0) analysis showed 5 clusters, 3 in central region, 1 in Tororo and Busia and the other in Kasese which are cross-border districts. Geographical location, pig density and cross border trades were the identified factors associated with of the disease. Conclusions: The disease is endemic in majority of the districts, with highest ASF cases in central region and fewer cases in the northern eastern region. ASF occurrence was observed throughout the year with no indication of seasonality. High cases of ASF were observed along cross boarder districts and districts with large pig population of at least ≥ 30000 pigs.