Determinants of net migration in Uganda: a time series study from 1992 to 2023

Abstract

Uganda faces a severe human capital crisis due to persistent negative net migration over the past three decades, where more skilled professionals emigrate than immigrants enter the country. This exodus of doctors, engineers, and educators has created critical skills shortages, with the net migration rate worsening from -0.5 to -2.3 per 1,000 population between 1992-2015 threatening Uganda's development plans. The study investigated this phenomenon using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling of World Development Indicators data from 1992-2023. The results show that factors that were associated and responsible for worsening negative net migration included; population growth (192,251.9, p < 0.001), political stability (82,548.33, p <0.002) measured by the World Bank's Political Stability Index (Political stability) and external debt (900.60, p <0.016) as they all had a significant positive relationship with net migration whereas foreign direct investment (-0.0000547, p < 0.001) was found to reduce the out migration of people as it revealed a negative relationship with net migration. Notably, the positive coefficient for political stability suggests improved governance enables mobility without addressing underlying economic push factors. The study revealed no significant short-run relationship. These findings indicate Uganda's migration crisis stems from structural labor market deficiencies rather than temporary economic shocks. The study recommends focusing on attracting foreign direct investment that supports labor-intensive industries rather than capital-intensive projects that do not generate significant employment, policy makers and stakeholders implementing population growth control measures such as controlling child and early marriage since it’s a major contributor to Uganda’s high population growth that was found to worsen out migration, implement targeted policies that stimulate employment in labor-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture value chains, and ICT Such measures are essential for retaining skilled professionals and achieving Uganda's Vision 2040 development goals, as current trends risk perpetuating cycles of underdevelopment and dependency

Subject keywords : Migration; Uganda