The effect of carbon emissions on coffee production in Uganda.

Abstract

Coffee is an important source of export earnings, employment and rural livelihoods in Uganda. However, increasing carbon emissions pose challenges to agricultural production, particularly in rain-fed farming systems. Understanding the relationship between carbon emissions and coffee production is therefore important for developing sustainable agricultural policies. This study examined the short-run and long-run effects of carbon emissions on coffee production in Uganda from 1984 to 2023. Specifically, the study assessed the effects of carbon emissions on coffee production while controlling for agricultural land, fertilizer use, real GDP growth and general government final consumption expenditure. The study employed a quantitative time-series research design using annual secondary data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships. The bounds test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship among the study variables (F-statistic = 5.567). The results revealed that carbon emissions had a negative and statistically significant short-run effect on coffee production, with a coefficient of -12.41, but a positive and statistically significant long-run relationship, with a coefficient of 12.18. The error correction coefficient of -0.663 indicated that approximately 66.3% of deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected annually. Agricultural land had a negative and statistically significant long-run relationship with coffee production, while real GDP growth and government expenditure had positive and statistically significant long-run relationships. Diagnostic tests generally confirmed the stability of the estimated model. The study recommends strengthening climate-smart and climate-resilient coffee production through the promotion of agroforestry, sustainable land management, soil conservation and appropriate agricultural technologies to mitigate short-run climate-related production disruptions and support the long-term sustainability of Uganda's coffee sector. Keywords: Carbon emissions; coffee production; climate change; ARDL; Uganda; climate-smart agriculture.