Determinants of time overruns in road infrastructure projects in Uganda

Abstract

This study investigated the determinants of time overruns in road infrastructure projects in Uganda. The analysis was done using frequency distribution, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Pearson Chisquare and binary logistic regression. The study shows that the introduction of the Integrated Bank of Projects (IBP) significantly improved Uganda’s road infrastructure project management, reducing time overruns from 77.61% to 33.33% as a result of improving efficiency in project preparation due to the reduced turn-around time for preparing projects. Post-IBP, projects also experienced lower costs and shorter durations, with greater domestic funding and local contractor participation, confirming improvements in timeliness, cost-efficiency, and accountability. The multivariate logistic regression results indicate that procurement delays, feasibility studies, and land acquisition status were the key determinants of time overruns in Uganda’s road infrastructural projects. Projects that experienced procurement delays after the introduction of the IBP were about nine times more likely to encounter time overruns, demonstrating that procurement inefficiencies remained a major source of delay despite institutional reforms. In contrast, projects that conducted feasibility studies were significantly less likely to experience time overruns across all project periods, confirming the crucial role of proper planning and technical assessment in ensuring timely completion. Likewise, projects with partially acquired land showed a substantially lower likelihood of delays, with odds ratios of 0.073, 0.081, and 0.065 (p < 0.05), suggesting that timely and adequate land acquisition is essential for minimizing project delays. To enhance the timely delivery of road infrastructure projects in Uganda, the study recommends making undertaking comprehensive feasibility studies mandatory for all infrastructure projects, ensuring they address technical, financial, environmental, economic, and social aspects, while investing in continuous capacity building for technical officers responsible for preparing and managing projects and consultants. It also advises streamlining procurement processes through digitization, stronger contract management, performance-based contractor evaluations, and strict timelines to reduce delays. Additionally, early community engagement, fair and timely compensation, coordinated land acquisition processes, and a centralized land information system are recommended to address persistent land-related challenges and minimize project delays.