Evaluation of transition pathways from traditional bioenergy to improved domestic cooking energy services in Uganda using a systems dynamics approach.

Abstract

Uganda’s energy sector is heavily dependent on traditional biomass, primarily firewood and charcoal, which supplies over 89% of the country's total energy demand. This overreliance contributes to deforestation, indoor air pollution, and social burdens associated with fuel collection, particularly for women and children. Rapid population growth, urbanization, and limited access to clean energy services exacerbate these challenges, while policy progress has been slow. Addressing such systemic issues requires a holistic framework that captures the complexity and dynamics of the bioenergy sector. This study employed a System Dynamics Approach to evaluate sustainable transition pathways from traditional to clean cooking energy services in Uganda. Guided by constructivist and systems thinking paradigms, it integrated qualitative systems mapping, through literature review and stakeholder engagement, with quantitative modeling and simulation in STELLA. The research defined the sector’s temporal (1990–2050), spatial (national), and structural boundaries, and developed the Uganda Bioenergy System Dynamics Model using Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock–Flow Diagrams. The model captured key stocks and flow variables, with feedback loops and policy levers representing the system’s internal dynamics. Model verification and validation were conducted through structural checks, historical data comparison, and extreme condition testing. Four policy scenarios, Efficient Charcoal Production (ECP), Efficient Cookstoves (EC), Fuel Switching (FS), and Comprehensive Transition (CT), were simulated against a Business-as-Usual (BAU), and evaluated using a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) framework. Results showed that all intervention scenarios deliver significant environmental and socio-economic improvements compared to BAU, with the CT scenario performing best overall. By 2050, CT reduces woody biomass harvesting by 81% relative to BAU and by 84% compared to 2030 levels. It also cuts household energy costs by about 70% and generates an estimated US$115 million annually in carbon credit revenues. The EC and FS scenarios yield 50% and 47% cost reductions, respectively, with substantial carbon finance potential. Policy implications highlighted that scaling up efficient charcoal production, promoting improved cookstoves, and incentivizing fuel switching through subsidies and infrastructure investment can accelerate Uganda’s clean energy transition. An integrated, comprehensive strategy, aligned with Vision 2040, NDP IV, and NDC commitments, offered the strongest pathway for achieving sustainable energy access and environmental protection. The study contributed a validated, replicable SD framework for modeling bioenergy transitions in low-income contexts, offering insights into feedbacks, delays, and socio-technical interactions that shape sustainable energy futures.