An exploratory analysis of climate variability and its effects on community resilience in Nabiswera sub-county Nakasongola district-Uganda.

Abstract

Climate variability and change has undoubtedly become a substantial global challenge. The impacts of climate change are felt by both the developing and developed countries, exerting a lot of pressure on the social economic and environmental dimensions of the society. There is a growing awareness that affirms variations and change in climate over time including, the impact of climate variability and change on pastoralist households and adaptation strategies (Okoti et al., 2014); the effects of climate variability and change on community resilience in the cattle corridors of Uganda especially Nakasongola remains hardly known, with limited research evidence. This study sought to establish the extent to which climate variability affects community resilience in Nabiswera sub-county of Nakasongola District from 1984-2016.

In this study, a cross-sectional study design was adopted with a blend of both quantitative and qualitative techniques employed. Particularly, geo-spatial vulnerability and regression analysis tools were used to assess climate variability and establish the relationship between climate variability and community resilience. The study helped to provide a clear understanding, characterisation and mapping of community resilience and vulnerability index in the study area with reference to changing climate. An assessment of the climatic parameters has revealed a general change in both rainfall and temperature patterns over the years (1984-2014). This has been characterised with community members experiencing extreme weather events such as change in rainfall, more frequent droughts and delays in the start of rainy seasons among others. Overall, climate variability has a significant effect on community resilience as noted with (F=18.266 and p=0.000). This means that climate variability is a significant determinant of the changes in community resilience. The change in climatic conditions continues to expose the most vulnerable groups including women, pastoralists and the elderly among others, threatening their adaptive capacity. With the majority of the population depending on rain-fed agriculture as their primary source of income in Uganda; this change poses a big challenge to the community resilience.

The various coping strategies such as adjusting planting periods, migration from climate stressed areas that have been adopted by the community members are not sustainable. Therefore, there is need for a policy shift and enforcement from all the key stakeholders including community, local government, policy and legal fraternity and non-governmental organisations.