Modeling the influence of urban change on household access to electricity in Suleja local government area of Niger State, Nigeria

Abstract

Despite the three hydropower stations in Niger State, Nigeria, Local government within the State still experiences poor electricity access indicators of duration, reliability, which usually translate into power outages that sometimes last for days. The poor electricity access experienced in Niger State is evident in Suleja Local Government Area. For this reason, this study was conducted to assess the influence of urban change on household access to electricity in Suleja Local Government Area (SLGA) of Niger State. The study's specific objectives were to characterise the nature and pattern of urban change and examine its drivers. Electricity access by households and the implication of urban change on households' access to electricity were evaluated and modelled, respectively. Data was collected using questionnaires and processed satellite imageries which were then corroborated with data from the Niger State Regional Plan, Suleja Master Plan, and Abuja Electricity Distribution Company. Data collected through the questionnaire were analysed using Datatab, and the spatial analysis was done using Idrisi, a GIS and Remote tool. The study revealed that the urban change intensity index of SLGA developed from low urban intensity (0.16) between 1987 and 1999 to highly rapid urban intensity (0.73) between 2007 and 2019. The rapid urban change intensity experienced in SLGA was also not commensurate with electricity access. The indexes of 0.26 for duration and 0.17 for reliability show that the duration and reliability of electricity access indicators were acute in the study area. Electricity access in SLGA was further simulated in four scenarios (Business as usual, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and mitigation), with the renewable energy scenario performing better. The multi-tier energy framework and the low-emission analysis platform were localised and used to measure and model electricity access, respectively. The study concludes that the nature and pattern of urban change in SLGA was characterised by sprawling and poor electricity access. The study recommends the review of the outdated masterplan for effective development control by the Niger State Urban Development Board to check the problems of urban sprawling. Renewable energy sources were also recommended as an alternative energy source to supplement grid electricity to meet the demand for electricity arising from rapid urban change.