Effect of seasonal variation on milk sales and cattle vector-borne prevalence in Kiboga - Uganda

Abstract

The livestock sector in Uganda contributes 5% to the national GDP, 18.1% to agricultural GDP and 1- 1.5% to trade export value. However, livestock productivity is mainly affected by climate, disease vectors & diseases, and nutrition; climate being the most significant. Heat stress alone results in yield loss of up to 900 kg of milk/ cow/ lactation due to increased morbidity & mortality. The objective of the study was to identify the effects of seasonal variation on milk sales and cattle vector-borne disease prevalence in Kiboga District. A cross-sectional survey was conducted and a structured questionnaire was used. Quantitative and qualitative research methods were used in collection of both primary and secondary data. Data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (IBM, SPSS Statistics (2017) 25.0). Correlation and regression analysis were done to establish the relationship between the independent and dependent variables in the data set. The results of the descriptive statistics showed 250C and 227 mm as the monthly mean temperature and rainfall respectively. Correlation analysis indicated a very weak negative but highly significant relationship between temperature and milk delivered (r=-0.023, p=0.010 (2 tailed) as well as between household milk generated income (r=-0.025, p=0.005 (2 tailed). The analysis further indicated a very weak positive relationship between rainfall and milk delivered (r=0.017, p=0.065 (2 tailed) and a very weak positive but highly significant relationship with household milk generated income (r=0.026, p=0.003 (2 tailed). Regression analysis indicated that the independent variables explain 1.5% of the variability in milk delivered with the highest contributing predictor being temperature. Regression analysis also indicated that the independent variables explain 99.8% of the variability in household milk generated income with the highest contributing predictor being milk delivered. East Coast Fever was the main disease affecting cattle and most prevalent during the dry season. In conclusion, there was an increase in milk delivered and household income generated from milk with rising level of precipitation but declined with increasing temperature. Cattle diseases prevalence was highest during the August –November season. Pasture management, water conservation, effective disease management and milk cooling facilities should be improved.