A freight transport demand forecasting model for the Northern Economic Corridor with future transport options

Abstract

Many developing countries, including Uganda, face challenges in appraising transport policies/schemes and making evidence-based decisions due to the lack of appropriate transport demand models. This study aimed to contribute to freight transport demand analysis by developing a freight mode choice model to assess the influence of transport cost, transport time, reliability, and rail accessibility on freight mode choices along the corridor. Stated preference data collected from 42 logistics companies was used under Random Utility Maximization (RUM) framework to develop Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL) models to forecast choices between road and rail on the Northern Economic Corridor in Uganda in light of the future transport options (development of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) infrastructure). The model results indicate huge demand potential for the proposed SGR with mode shares estimated to be 29%,16%, 55% for road, MGR and SGR respectively. The study also estimated willingness-to-pay metrics along the corridor, including the Value of Transport Time (VTT) determined to be 195.8 USD per day per TEU which is comparable to 261.06 USD/TEU reported by a similar study in South Africa. The Value of Reliability is also determined to be 7.81 USD for each 1% improvement in reliability. The study is used to forecast future market scenarios for the different modes including the one without rail accessibility where SGR market share reduces to 44%. Furthermore, the model results were also used to forecast road-to-rail traffic diversion under the different policy scenarios and to simulate the contribution to increased pavement life on a road section of the Northern Economic Corridor. This study notes the inherent preference for road for freight transport and recommends several policy measures including improving rail accessibility to increase its competitiveness and contribute to the development of sustainable transport along the corridor.