Exploring the determinants of land conflicts and their impact on agricultural productivity in Bugiri District, Eastern Uganda

Abstract

Land conflicts are a global issue, especially in developing nations, and are driven by large-scale land acquisitions, weak governance, population growth, and overlapping land rights. In sub-Saharan Africa, colonial land dispossession and current pressure have intensified land conflicts and disrupted community cohesion. Uganda continues to experience frequent small-scale disputes within communities, fostering uncertainty and insecurity that deter land investment. This study aimed to document how land conflicts affect agricultural productivity in the Bugiri District. A mixed-method approach was utilised, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. Qualitative data was analysed using Content Analysis in Nvivo 14 while a Binary Logistic Regression (BLR), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Mann-Whitney U test were used to analyse the quantitative data using SPSS 25. BLR was employed to determine the influence of household socio-economic factors on land conflict likelihood, PCA was used to identify the perceived causes of land conflicts among households, while the Mann-Whitney U Test was used to compare agricultural productivity between disputed and undisputed lands. The analysis identified several significant factors that influenced land conflict including, the age group, with older individuals being 1.344 times more likely to encounter conflicts (p-value = 0.006), single individual households being less likely to experience conflicts (p-value = 0.024), higher education levels decreased the likelihood of conflicts (p-value = 0.019), while households holding land titles reduced conflict likelihood (p-value = 0.010). The key causes of conflict included tenant evictions (loading: 0.636), soil infertility (loading: 0.715), illegal occupation (loading: 0.716), inadequate conflict resolution (loading: 0.531), and corruption (loading: 0.615). This study highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to address land conflicts, involving both customary and formal legal systems, as well as measures to improve land governance, tenure security, and community-based dispute resolution mechanisms. These findings contribute to the understanding of land conflict dynamics and their implications for agricultural development in Uganda and beyond, informing policies and practices to promote sustainable land use and regional development planning.