Feasibility of Burundi's solar PV potential for regional energy supply

Abstract

Burundi, like many Sub-Saharan African countries, faces acute energy challenges characterized by limited access to electricity, high dependence on traditional biomass, and an underdeveloped energy infrastructure. Despite its abundant solar resource potential, the country has yet to harness solar energy effectively as a major contributor to its energy mix. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of deploying solar photovoltaic (PV) systems across Burundi to promote sustainable development and industrial growth. Using empirical solar data (sunshine duration and temperature variations) over seven years from 14 meteorological stations, alongside average hourly load demand profiles from electrified locations, HOMER Pro software was employed to design and optimize PV-based systems. Results reveal that solar irradiance ranges annually from 4.6 to 5.9 kWh/m2/day in the fourteen locations under study. These findings also show that in regions such as Makamba, Imbo, and Gisozi, the global horizontal irradiance exceeds 5.8 kWh/m²/day, making them prime candidates for PV deployment. In these regions, financial analyses based on the system designed to meet the demand reveal that Net Present Cost (NPC), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period (PBP), and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) demonstrate that PV-battery systems are both viable and attractive, with LCOE values as low as USD cents 19/kWh and payback periods of 1.3-2.7 years. A key outcome of the simulations is that HOMER consistently sized PV systems to produce more electricity than actual demand, ensuring reliability during low-irradiance months and generating surpluses during peak seasons. These surpluses can be directed toward battery storage, grid export, or productive industrial uses, strengthening energy security and economic resilience. This study demonstrates that solar PV can support the three key pillars of sustainability: (i) the reduction of carbon emissions (environmental), (ii) the facilitation of cost-effective and reliable power (economic), and (iii) the expansion of energy access (social). Furthermore, the study developed a policy brief that provides recommendations for policymakers, energy developers, and investors. These include promoting public-private partnerships, implementing targeted subsidies and incentives, integrating solar energy into rural electrification strategies, and strengthening institutional frameworks for renewable energy adoption.