Spatial-temporal patterns of rabies outbreaks in Uganda : a retrospective study 2018-2022

Abstract

Rabies is a major global public health concern, with the majority of cases occurring in the developing countries of Asia and Africa. The disease is endemic in Uganda and has been ranked among the top-priority seven zoonotic diseases that impact public health in the country. Effective management of the disease in endemic countries has been greatly affected by the absence of reliable data. This study aims at determining the spatial-temporal patterns of rabies outbreaks in domestic animals (dogs, cats, goats, and cows) in Uganda. A retrospective study was carried out based on rabies reporting data from January 2018 to September 2022 as compiled by NADDEC. Descriptive statistical techniques were employed to calculate the prevalence of the disease. The temporal patterns of rabies were achieved by creating a line graph that depicted how rabies cases changed over time. QGIS software version 3.28 was used to explore the spatial patterns of the disease, enabling the visualization of the distribution of rabies cases across various districts in Uganda. ARMA (13,4) model was opted to predict rabies cases in Uganda from October 2022 to December 2023. A total of 2,081 rabies cases were reported in Uganda from January 2018 to September 2022. This represents 2.29% of the total number of animals (90,895) reported to be at risk. The predominant method of diagnosis used by veterinary technical staff was clinical manifestation; only 8 cases were laboratory confirmed. The year 2019 had the highest number of cases (29.56%), whereas 2020 had the lowest number of cases (7.11%). Of the reported cases, 23 (goats and cows) were slaughtered, 515 died, and 581(cats and dogs) were euthanized. Districts of Mukono, Tororo, Iganga, Kalangala, Busia, and Serere reported the highest number of cases (between 35 and 688) while Kiboga, Mityana, Sheema, Rubirizi, Moyo, and Pader reported the least cases. The most predominant method of rabies prevention was vaccination where total a of 39,735 animals were vaccinated. The model projected 89 cases of rabies between October and December 2022 and a total of 248 rabies cases in the year 2023, January was predicted to have the fewest cases while April had the highest. The main outbreak management methods used were culling, movement control, and awareness creation. The spatial-temporal patterns of rabies identified in this study indicate a heterogeneous distribution of the disease throughout the country. This, therefore, calls for appropriate planning and resource allocation by key actors to achieve the global target of “Zero rabies by 2030.”