System dynamics modeling in healthcare: The Ugandan immunisation system

Abstract

The paper develops a system dynamics simulation model to understand the dynamics of immunisation with the aim of aiding decision making process by proposing policies that would enhance immunisation utilization. The model is designed with the intent to show how particular variables influence immunisation demand and coverage rather than predict immunisation coverage rates. The paper applies system dynamics modeling and field study research methods to capture the complex and dynamic nature of the immunization process, to enhance the understanding of the immunization health care problems and to generate insights that may increase the immunization coverage effectiveness. The model is divided into four sectors interacting with one another. The paper suggests key leverage points which could substantially improve immunisation demand, effectiveness of the health system as well as vaccine management.