School of Forestry, Environmental and Geographical Sciences (SFEGS) Collections

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    Assessing the effects of climate variability on household food security in Moroto District
    (Makerere University, 2025) Akol, Lokeris Stella
    Climate variability has exacerbated the food insecurity situation through variations in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures that reduce water for production affecting crop yields and animal productivity. These major livelihoods of communities in Karamoja region rely on favourable climatic conditions which reliance is derailed by climate variability. This study thought to investigate the effects of climate variability on food security in Moroto District. The specific objectives of the study were; to assess the trends of climate variability from 1990 – 2020, to examine the effects of climate variability on household food security, and to analyse the effectiveness of the existing adaptation strategies. Trend analysis, multiple logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are some of the methods that were used in this study. Results show that there is a general increment in annual mean temperature and a general reduction in total amount of rainfall received annually over the study period in the region. In terms of predictors of climate variability affecting on food availability, pests and diseases and crop failure were identified as significant predictors. Food accessibility was mainly affected by reduced household incomes while difficulty in food preservation and storage were identified as significant predictors affecting household food utilization. Results on effectiveness of adaptation strategies show that fertilizer use and planting fast maturing crops were the most effective options to attaining food availability while food aid and proper food storage were the most significant strategies to attaining food accessibility and food utilization respectively. The study recommends that households should adapt strategies such as irrigation and agroforestry, organic fertilizers, planting fast maturing crop varieties and proper food storage to enhance household food security and minimise the effects of climate variability.
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    Assessing community adaptation for health risks associated with flood-induced waterborne disease outbreaks in Kampala City
    (Makerere University, 2025) Nakalanzi, Swabulah Mandela
    Kampala City, Uganda, faces substantial health risks stemming from frequent outbreaks of waterborne diseases induced by flooding. This study addressed the escalating vulnerability of poor urban communities to health risks associated with flooding, which is exacerbated by inadequate drainage systems, rapid urbanization, and limited adaptive capacities. This study evaluated community adaptation and the effectiveness of coping strategies in mitigating health risks linked to flood-induced waterborne diseases in Kampala City. A mixed-method research approach was employed, incorporating a case study and cross-sectional survey conducted in the three flood- prone parishes of Bwaise III, Kisenyi II, and Kamwokya III. Quantitative data were gathered through 370 household surveys, and qualitative insights were obtained from six focus group discussions. The findings revealed that flood events significantly increased health risks, particularly the spread of waterborne diseases, such as diarrhea, typhoid, and dysentery. Mental health risks were significantly associated with divisions and parishes (χ ² = 13.63, p = 0.001 for anxiety/stress; χ ² = 12.53, p = 0.002 for depression; x² = 17.195, p = 0.001 for post-traumatic stress disorder by marital status). Mortality and injury risks were also strongly linked to sociodemographic factors (χ ² = 23.98, p = 0.001 for drowning; x² = 63.11, p = 0.001 for deaths across divisions; χ ² = 64.485, p = 0.001 at the parish level). High exposure to contaminated flood water and hazardous chemicals resulted in widespread skin allergies (reported by up to 87% of the respondents in Kisenyi III). A general linear model confirmed that marital status, household size, education, and income significantly influenced community adaptation (p < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that elevating home structures negatively influenced adaptation (β = –0.082, p < 0.05), whereas community education, organized training programs, community-led flood mitigation projects, and coordination with local authorities positively influenced adaptation (β values ranging from 0.121 to 0.189, all p < 0.05). This study underscores the urgent need for integrated urban flood management and public health policies that prioritize community adaptation and adaptation in informal settlements. Enhancing community-based disaster risk reduction frameworks, integrating flood health adaptation planning, and improving coordination among local governments, health, and environmental agencies are crucial for reducing vulnerability and promoting sustainable urban health. This underscores the necessity for integrated risk reduction and adaptation strategies, public health interventions, and climate adaptation policies tailored to the specific conditions of impoverished urban communities.
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    Assessing the influence of climate variability drivers on seasonal rainfall extremes and flood risks in Katakwi District Teso Subregion, Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Kyeyune, Allan Aloysius
    This study assessed the influence of climate variability drivers on seasonal rainfall extremes in Katakwi District, Eastern Uganda. The study was governed by specific objectives which included (i) assess temporal and spatial trends in rainfall extremes during the March April Mary (MAM) and September October November December (SOND) seasons, (ii) to characterize the temporal patterns of climate variability drivers (iii) to examine the relationship between climate variability drivers and rainfall extremes in relation to historical flood occurrences. The study aimed at determining how climate variability drivers (Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)) influence rainfall extremes during the March–May (MAM) and September–December (SOND) rainfall seasons. Six indices which included Rx1day (Maximum daily precipitation), Rx5day (Maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation), R95p (very wet days), R99p(extremely wet days), SDII(Mean precipitation during wet days), and PRCPTOT(Seasonal total rainfall) recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were computed from Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station dataset (CHIRPS) daily rainfall data from 1990 to 2023. Temporal and spatial trend analyses of rainfall extremes were conducted using Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sen’s slope estimator, and Kriging interpolation in ArcMap10.4. The relationships between climate drivers and rainfall extremes were evaluated through Spearman correlation. A comparative analysis was then used to assess the relationship between known documented flood years, rainfall extreme indices and climate drivers. Objective 1 results revealed that SOND had statistically significant increasing trend in rainfall extremes especially in Annual total precipitation in wet days (p=0.0379). Spatial analysis of Katakwi district revealed significant increasing trends in seasonal rainfall extremes, indicating increased vulnerability to flood risk in both seasons. However, the entire Katakwi district is at risk, and the southeastern and central parts, with their sub-counties, emerge as the most vulnerable regions prone to flood risk. Objective 2 results showed that IOD emerged as the dominant and influential climate driver with statistically significant increasing trends in MAM (p=0.026) and near-significant trends in SOND (p=0.052). Objective 3 results reveled that ENSO and MJO showed weaker and insignificant correlations with rainfall extremes across both seasons. Analysis of historical flood years (1997, 2007, 2010, 2018, 2019, and 2023) revealed strong alignment with positive IOD phases and elevated Rx5day (Maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and PRCPTOT (Seasonal total rainfall) values, illustrating the dominance of multi-day rainfall events over single-day extreme triggering floods in the study area. The study therefore, recommends the integration of IOD informed early warning systems for rainfall forecasts to reduce increasing climate induced flood vulnerabilities in the district.
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    Assessment of the application of the mitigation hierarchy on a road improvement project in Western Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Aringaniza Ingrid
    The mitigation hierarchy is vital for preventing and managing environmental impacts of infrastructure development, yet empirical evidence of its effectiveness in safeguarding biodiversity remains limited, particularly in developing countries. This study assessed the application of the mitigation hierarchy following upgrade of the 66 km Fort Portal-Kamwenge road, specifically the 13 km section traversing Kibale National Park in western Uganda. The objectives were to: 1) assess extent of mitigation hierarchy principle application; 2) analyze spatial-temporal land use and land cover changes along the road corridor; and 3) evaluate vegetation composition within the established road corridor. Data were collected using systematic vegetation surveys, multi-temporal LANDSAT satellite image analysis (2015, 2017, 2023), and comprehensive document review following PRISMA guidelines. Stratified random sampling established 36 plots (10m × 10m) at three distance strata (0m, 50m, 100m) from both road sides across six equal segments. ArcGIS was used to perform spatial-temporal LULC analysis within a 500m buffer zone of the road corridor within the national park. The Community Analysis Package was used for the Analysis of Similarity (ANOSIM) and Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS). Vegetation community structure and diversity indices were analysed using R software. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment reports were reviewed to evaluate compliance with mitigation hierarchy requirements. Implementation was assessed using indicators derived from international standards (BBOP) and scored on a standardized numerical scale. Results showed differential implementation across mitigation hierarchy stages: complete avoidance and minimization (100% compliance), partial restoration (67%), and absent offset/compensation measures (0%), yielding 62% overall implementation. Land cover analysis revealed initial tree cover loss (-3.6%) during construction (2015-2017), followed by significant recovery (+4.9%) by 2023, with concurrent grassland expansion. Vegetation assessment documented 94 plant species from 45 families. There were no significant differences in species composition or woody stem density relative to road proximity, suggesting minimal road edge effects on forest structure eight years post-construction. These findings suggest that the mitigation hierarchy framework, when properly implemented, may contribute to biodiversity protection as indicated by the forest recovery and limited road edge effects on vegetation structure. We recommend prioritizing complete implementation of all hierarchy sequences, particularly establishing robust offset/compensation mechanisms and comprehensive restoration protocols, to achieve optimal environmental protection outcomes.
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    The effect of land conflict on food security in refugee settlements: a case study of Oliji refugee settlement, Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025) Tuheirwe, Sheeba
    Food insecurity remains a persistent challenge in refugee settlements in Uganda. This study examined the effect of land conflict on food security among refugees in Oliji refugee settlement, in Northern Uganda. Uganda has a progressive self-reliance policy for refugees, but land-based conflicts continue to undermine food availability and stability within refugee settlements. Using a mixed methods approach, data were collected from both refugees and host community members using observation, semi-structured interviews (142), focus group discussions (3) and key informant interviews (14). Findings revealed that crop farming is a major source of livelihood with over 68% of the responds practicing it. The most common nature and occurance of land conflict was destruction of land owners’ livestock and this was reported by 72.4% of the respondents. Awareness of the self-reliance policy was reported by 71% of the respondents. However, only 5% of the respondents were classified as self-reliant, relying on their own food sources rather support agencies like United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and World Food Programme. Furthermore, land conflicts were shown to negatively impact the food security. Households that had experienced land conflict had a significantly lower mean Food Consumption Score of 29.54 (borderline range), compared to those who had not experienced land conflict with a mean Food Consumption Score of 40.74 (acceptable range). Indicating that exposure to land-based conflicts was associated with increased food insecurity. The study concludes that without strengthened conflict resolution mechanisms and enhanced support for self-reliance through agriculture, improvements on food security will remain difficult to achieve. The findings are intended to inform the various stakeholders involved in refugee management and policy formulation particularly in relation to land access, conflict mediation and food security