College of Natural Sciences (CoNAS)

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Mathematical modelling of the in-host and within-mosquito dynamics of plasmodium falciparum malaria

(Makerere University, 2025) Abu-Sufiyan, Ibn Abdul-Razak

Malaria infection is a significant global health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This study develops and analyzes a deterministic mathematical model for the in-human host and within-mosquito dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. We establish a positive invariant region, compute the basic reproduction number R0, and determine conditions for the existence and stability of malaria-free and malaria-infected equilibrium points. Our results show that the malaria-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 ≤ 1, and the disease dies out, while the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1, and the disease persists. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the number of merozoites released per rupturing schizont and the proportion of merozoites proceeding with asexual replication are key parameters influencing malaria dynamics. Notably, our findings suggest that boosting the efficiency of ingested human antibodies in inhibiting fertilization within the mosquito’s gut can significantly reduce oocysts and sporozoites development, providing a potential pathway for the development of transmission-blocking vaccines. These vaccines could potentially reduce malaria transmission from mosquitoes to humans, offering a promising strategy for malaria control and elimination.