Evaluation of continuation ratio and ordered logistic models in modeling level of educational attainment and its associated factors among females (15-49 years) in Uganda

Abstract

Formal education is crucial for individual and economic growth. This study examined the accuracy of the continuation ratio model (CRM) and ordered logistic regression (OLR) in modelling correlates of educational attainment among females aged 15-49 in Uganda. Data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) was used. Descriptive characteristics of respondents were generated. A stepwise ordered logistic regression model was fitted to assess the association between covariates and the outcome, identifying predictor variables for further analysis.

At the inferential level, the CRM model was found to be more precise in identifying factors associated with educational attainment. Higher paternal education, joint parental decision-making, wealth status, professional or manual employment, and residence in North Buganda, Bukedi, and Bugisu regions were associated with increased odds of attaining higher education. Conversely, older age, rural residence, larger family size, and residence in Karamoja, Lango, West Nile, Bunyoro, Tooro, and Kigezi regions were associated with lower odds. This study found that the CRM best models female educational attainment, driven by socio-demographic and parental factors. The recommendation is to promote joint parental decision-making, increase economic support for poorer families, and expand employment opportunities for women’s education. Address regional disparities and bridge rural-urban education gaps. We further recommend using this model (CRM) for modelling ordinal response variables representing progress through lower to higher categories.